USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/24 -- Trump - .6 , Clinton + 1.0

USC/LA Times ^ | October 24, 2016 | USC/LA Times

[BlessedBeGod]

	10/24	10/23	Change
Trump	43.8	44.4	- . 6
Clinton	45.1	44.1	+ 1.0

[TheStickman]

“Based on the 0.1-0.2% daily swings over the past week or so, a full 2% swing is huge”

These MSM polls can swing 2 points this way, 6 points that way purely because Cankles propaganda-media want them to. If Trump was up 10 in this poll I still wouldn’t trust it. The meme between now & the election is “It’s over for Trump.”

Do not believe it. Do not feed into it. Get out and vote!

Vote Trump 2016

[Gene Eric]

Hillary gains popularity by not showing her face.

[Principled]

And that poll is likely voters...hence by definition it excludes the monster vote.

The monster vote is what will make news this cycle.

[PapaBear3625]

Hmmm Noise or who knows what..whatever go out and vote for Trump!

Exactly. When it's this close, the winner will be whoever gets better voter turnout.

[NKP_Vet]

Only thing covered about the Gettysburg speech was Trumping saying he would sue the lying wenches who says he gropped them. This smear tactic is 100% orchestrated by Hillary Clinton and win or lose he needs to sue the hell out of anybody involved.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Watching Fox & Friends this morning and pollster discussing down ticket, especially Senate, races. Seems a few RINO candidates, who had endorsed Trump were leading their races. They unendorsed Trump, for whatever reason, and are now losing. One, is Ayotte! She's a McNuts/Grahamnesty acolyte!

[NKP_Vet]

The only Southern state Trump will probably lose is the Socialist Republic of Virginia.

[Sooth2222]

Remember the NY Times story on "How One 19-Year Old Illinois Man is Distorting National Polling"?

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-daybreak-poll-questions-20161013-snap-story.html

If the participants were not pledged to secrecy regarding participation they can tell their friends they're part of the poll. My concern was that this news story could now distort the poll -- since the group would not as completely anonymous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_effect

[Darth Gill]

With trump down in this poll, Nate Silver can include this one now -ROFL

Well if this country elects Hillary, that is the official death knell. We will have lost all political power. The only option left is to fight in other ways.

[Berlin_Freeper]

See post 6 and switch to decaf.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Trump is going to bury Clinton with unlikely voters.

[Biggirl]

Vote for the peaceful revolution of Mr. Trump or we will see a violent revolution if Hillary gets in.

[bray]

From here on out it is GOTV time. You need to tell people to get to the polls.

Pray America wakes

[Corpus_Delicious]

Here's another way of looking at this poll. First, pull up the chart.

Compare the volume of "air" (that space between the candidates numbers when one candidate has been leading consistently). When Trump was running strong in late July and again from September 12 to October 10, there was a lot of "air" or divergence between his numbers and Hillary's.

Now look at those periods when Hillary led - much smaller volume of "air" for her.

Now look at those times when the polls have tightened and were flat-lining for awhile. Look at the days when Hillary broke out above Trump on August 12, 23 and 26, and again on September 7. They either quickly reversed or were very brief rallies that lasted no more than 5 days or so. She can't build momentum.

Hope this is a little more encouraging!

[OrioleFan]

Didn’t the New York Times chastise this poll a week ago? Ever since then Trump has been slipping... Hummmm

[edie1960]

Looks like Trump has fallen behind her by a tenth in today’s vaunted IBD tracker as well.
Pray!!!

[ScaniaBoy]

Yes, both Nate Silver and Nate Cohn (the latter from NYT) have criticized USC/Dornsife poll. Nate Cohn’s critique concerned a couple of things, correction for small groups (that's were the lone Afro-American 19 year old guy from Illinois came in), but what the Nates were really upset with was the fact that USC/Dornsife corrected for the question how people voted last time. Unless many other polls this poll was not happy with samples where you had a 10% advantage for Obama vs Romney.

In an article that was published a few days after Nate Cohn’s NYT piece one of the persons responsible for the USC poll wrote a reply. He claimed that they did not see much difference whether they corrected for the results of last election or not. It was not quite clear from that article whether USC had decided to remove that correction from their methods or not, but it is a fact that from that day on the poll tightened considerably, and Trump has never had above 6% AA support since then.

[ncalburt]

the radical
left like Gay left wing Nutter and former Daily Kos staffer Nate the Hoax Silver use smears and public ridicule and intimidation to get the results they want .

Polls are psychops weapons now used by the radical left .
Left wing Nutter Nate bullies everyone into line .

you can only imagine the threatening emails sent to those pollsters not following the Clinton winning propaganda.

Clinton is not an incumbent but we use a dated 4 year old model for a two non incumbents .

What was the 2000 turnout !
Nate has banned that formula.

polling in such a scam now .
i can see why gallup gave up

[ScaniaBoy]

Given time I will write a Vanity about the polling that took place in Sweden just before our referendum on joining the Euro in 2003. I will ping you in that case. Figures will lie and liars will figure!