#2 - I already posted the IBD/TIPP poll earlier today which showed Trump up 2 - not only is it a "valid" poll - in fact they were the best in the last 3 presidential elections
#3 - Rasmussen also has Trump ahead +2 and is a more normal poll
#4 - none of the polls are really that scientific and do what they use to - 30-40% of the population doesn't have a phone line, there is no single cell phone director and the cell #s are ported all over the country, only 5-6% of people actually answer the phones and many polls use internet responses just like the PPD. Then the pollsters try to figure out who the 30 to 40% are lying about their intentions to vote (roughly 9 in 10 registered voters will say they are voting but only 60%-65% show up) and then most will re-weight those results to what they think the projected turn out for either D/R/I or by demographics (by age, race, etc). Pew reported after they and many other missed 2012 that various assumptions made their poll spread by as much 8% delta from what they reported.