Sorry, but I am not buying these polls. They are not valid.ABC’s has already been debunked for using waaay too much dems vs. us.
Another big problem with the polls is a lot of them use landlines,how many cell phones are being used? It’s hard to do accurate polling any more I don’t know how it would happen with communications the way they are these days.
Agree. Polling has some real problems due to technology and social media. Bill Clinton never received 50% of the vote and Hillary will not either.
Another thing that bothers me about polling is the sampling. When I studied random polling as part of an advanced statistics graduate course in the mid-70s there was no such thing as selective sampling. Only either registered or likely voters. A perfect random sample can do a nationwide poll of 1012 with an error margin +- 4%.
The rub is how to make it truly random. Back then the sample method was phone landlines sometimes cross-tabbed to voting lists. The only issue is that it doesn't capture voters without phones. None of this 36% republican, 43% democrat selection.
Today it is impossible to capture anything close to a true random. Cellphones or landlines, with caller-id how many even bother to answer much less refuse to cough up 15 minutes of precious time. Response rates ,I hear, are 15% or less. How do you capture those demographics. People who work all day are not going to answer an unknown call during the day and at night. Elderly, the affirmed, people not working are more likely with time on their hands to talk.
Which categories do you think the likely Trump or Clinton voters fall into?