Posted on 10/22/2016 5:03:29 PM PDT by GilGil
Las Vegas Oddsmaker Says Donald Trump Will Win
I’ll try to do a poll report very early tomorrow morning. But if it’s not up 7 am Pacific, then it won’t come out until noon PST.
However, a California reporter friend of mine just sent me this. It’s anonymous and unverifiable - and perhaps it’s just wishful thinking, but my sense is this may be true.
It is written very poorly – without the usual scientific detail that all my polling reports usually contain. Is this an obvious flaw, warning us to dismiss it out of hand, or an overtaxed person dashing off a note to a friend – who then asks for a few more details so he or she can put it out for public consumption?
I don’t know. So, just throw this in your hopper for consideration. Just weigh it properly.
This broke 2 hours ago. From a Vegas Oddsmaker: “I am a non partisan actuarial mathematic and scientifically based odds maker, for large Vegas casinos. I am paid to be correct, and if I am wrong, I do not get paid, or will be fired, or worse, seriously. “Following the third debate, I have Trump up over Clinton 12 To 14 points, except in Massachusetts, and California, where Clinton has an 8 point lead.
“The latest narrative from the media is that Hillary has an insurmountable lead in New York. Thus is also lie. “The narrative of media hype of somewhere between a landslide and a narrow win for Clinton, in fraud polling - please quote me - is a BIG LIE.
“Trump will be the next President of the United States. “I have not been wrong in picking the winner of all US Presidential races since 1964, and I will not be wrong now.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
Here in Arizona there are no signs for Hillary. None! There are hundreds of signs for Trump. It is as if Trump is the only candidate running and he is unopposed.
Bill Mitchell is reporting that Trump is up over 100,000 in early voting on Florida and it is very likely that Trump is beating Hillary in Wisconsin.
Something is bubbling out there. It is more the early warning signs of a monster volcano (the monster vote).
And now this. Hillary wins 2 states out of 50: California and Massachusetts. Wow!
In just a few weeks, President-elect Trump will be the talk of the planet!
31% Hillary and still not good enough for the denizens of Dane County, WI.
Its over in more way than one.
Voting results are NOT released until after all polls are closed ...
I’m hoping Trump wins Massachusetts too! I would love to not be embarrassed to live in this state.
Do those Florida numbers match up with the official count of returned absentee ballots ?
My wife and I just voted to MAGA here in NV, and contributed another $20.17 (the year of our liberation). Go Trump!
Live Free or Die! Go New Hampshire!
What is the big deal on that?
No biggie on that.
I can see Massachusetts going Trump before NY State.
I hope the guy is right.
I’ve been saying I think Trump gets about 53% of the vote.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope it is way more than that.
Both candidates have done a good job depressing support for the other. We have people here in Muscogee County Georgia who are reporting that an unusually high number of people are voting “neither”. They don’t want Johnson, or a write-in, they just want “neither”. Another associate who is knocking on thousands of doors in CONNECTICUT, is seeing NO support for HRC, and some enthusiastic Trump support from unexpected places.
The thing is, Hillary has a MUCH lower floor than Trump does, and outside of people directly on the receiving end of her carrots and sticks (media and witnesses), there is NO buzz. I believe that the cumulative effect of Wikileaks, the more obvious media kissing-up, Trump reminding people of the rigging, Project Veritas and social media is doing the job to make sure she gets less support than Trump.
In 2008 I was doubtful that the Chicago method of working elections would work well on a nationwide scale. I was wrong then. I wasn’t sure if Trump’s approach that was effective in the primaries would work as well in the General, though I was hopeful, and knew the northeast would be in play in a way that it hasn’t since 1988.
Hey Clintons: the anti-biotics aren’t working anymore, and I don’t think there is a stronger dose, unless you want to try more wet work.
I am embarrassed to live in California....the big problem in California is that it is really liberal and I believe that about 25 percent of the vote is actually fraudulent voting. there is no way in the immediate future a republican will ever be elected here.
Darlin had Faux News on as I was walking past TV room. The footer said that there are LONG lines for absentee ballot voting.
The info presented by bill still does not ring true. I think the statement of going back to 1964 is too far fetched. The guy would be old and the methodologies for picking a winner over the last 50 years would be vastly different
Do those Florida numbers match up with the official count of returned absentee ballots ?
__________
Yes!
I’m a lot more concerned about concern-FReepers who need big color fonts to fuss about one of the most consistent an objective reporters.
Don’t need click advice.
Sorry I can’t agree with you. As a native New Yorker, Trump is one of us and even though they say Cankles is from New York, every time she opens her mouth she shows she’s not a New Yorker any more than her partner in high crimes and misdemeanors BJ is.
Isn’t Mass the State where there was a huge amount of Dems switching to Rep for the primaries? If so, then I don’t see how he cannot win Mass....unless they all switched for cruz.
The info presented by bill still does not ring true. I think the statement of going back to 1964 is too far fetched. The guy would be old and the methodologies for picking a winner over the last 50 years would be vastly different
_______________
If we get 73 million voting for Trump this kind of landslide with these kind of numbers is very probable.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.