Even IBD is playing games. Look at the poll internals.
Democrats had 7 million fewer Primary voters than 2008, yet Pollsters are sampling higher 2016 turnout.
IBD had to reweight their poll from R+2 to D+8 just to give Trump a 2 point win.
Trump leads the party vote by 7 and Indies by 16.
Oversample Dems by 8, and it looks close.
Trump 46.0%
Clinton 36.7%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3.7%
Other/Don't Know 6.7%
Hey, it would be roughly the same win margin Reagan got!