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USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/22 -- Trump - .2 , Clinton + .3
USC/LA Times ^ | October 22, 2016 | USC/LA Times

Posted on 10/22/2016 12:11:32 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod

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To: CatOwner

Polls are fraudulent. Make it a habit to read the internals.


41 posted on 10/22/2016 5:23:43 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: oblomov
Did something happen to move people from Carter to Reagan, or was it simply a matter of voters breaking to Reagan?

Carter happened - the malaise with attendant high interest rates (now that I don't need a loan for anything, I'd love for my savings to be making double-digit interest again), the Iran hostages and embarrassing rescue attempt - by the end of Carter's term the People would have voted for his brother Billy before electing him again.

42 posted on 10/22/2016 5:28:34 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: Jeff Chandler

“Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Gary Johnson was elected on Nov 8?”

No, it would be an unmittigated disaster! Nearly as bad as having Hillary!


43 posted on 10/22/2016 5:41:45 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: kvanbrunt2

“why did he not hammer at the debate. it is a national stage. ignore questions take charge and make your case to the people.”

Because it would have brought out the MSM “amen chorus.” He did what he needed to do in the “debate.”


44 posted on 10/22/2016 5:46:27 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: Does so

The hostage crisis and failed rescue attempt didn’t happen just in one week. Most of you assume the election actually broke for Reagan in the last week. Carter had long since become an embarrassment and surrounded by corruption (far less than Hillary).


45 posted on 10/22/2016 5:55:29 AM PDT by Williams (The (republican) party is over.)
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To: BlessedBeGod
Minor fluctuations like this are largely statistical noise. This poll is basically saying that the race has stabilized among the people who are being polled.

It is worth remembering that for a poll of 1000 people, the tenths digit basically represents one person.

The Achilles' heal of every poll is who gets polled. By using the same people for every day, this poll removes that variable from affecting their result, but it also means that it can miss large movements of who will actually go to the polls, which is probably the more interesting question in this election. And much harder to answer.

This election is fairly unprecedented, for a long list of reasons I won't recite. I wish I knew, because if Hillary is elected, it is over. Even if Trump is elected, unless he makes some pretty extreme changes, it will only be a temporary reprieve. By the time most people figure that out, it will have been too late by a long shot.

46 posted on 10/22/2016 6:26:55 AM PDT by hopespringseternal
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To: BlessedBeGod

I missed something along the way. When did this poll become significant or even reputable? Seems I never heard of it until this year.

Other than USC and Dornsife what is known about the sponsors?


47 posted on 10/22/2016 6:34:45 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (It feels like we have exchanged our dreams for survival. We just have a few days that don't suck.)
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To: Does so
Hostages in Iran.

Those hostages had been there for more than a year. They certainly had an effect but not on the polling breaking in the last week.

48 posted on 10/22/2016 7:07:02 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Everywhere is freaks and hairies Dykes and fairies, tell me where is sanity?)
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To: Jeff Chandler

No.


49 posted on 10/22/2016 8:32:39 AM PDT by theoilpainter
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To: Sequoyah101

I know the person who runs it. He ( and they) are serious political scientists. This is the RAND methodology, that did very well in 2012. He has kept his preference in this election to himself.


50 posted on 10/22/2016 8:38:55 AM PDT by theoilpainter
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To: theoilpainter

Thank you for the information.


51 posted on 10/22/2016 9:10:51 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (It feels like we have exchanged our dreams for survival. We just have a few days that don't suck.)
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To: Sequoyah101

Your welcome. He also told me that Clinton supporters slightly outnumber Trump’s in their sample, but that this poll puts heavy emphasis on actual likelihood the person will vote. As Trump’s voters indicate a greater likelihood of showing up and voting for their candidate, Trump has done better here than elsewhere.


52 posted on 10/22/2016 10:05:25 AM PDT by theoilpainter
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To: trebb
by the end of Carter's term the People would have voted for his brother Billy before electing him again.
It's been years since I saw one of these pop up at a swap meet. Lucky to find one on e-bay for less than $50. Jimmah was the SECOND worst pres. we seen in our lifetime, but everyone loved Billy.

53 posted on 10/22/2016 10:44:09 AM PDT by Impala64ssa (You call me an islamophobe like it's a bad thing.)
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To: BlessedBeGod

Wisconsin Early Votes Cast!!!
With 1.8 Million so far, Trump leads by a little over 11%,
42 to 29!!!
Meanwhile, Paul Ryan trails by five points. Delicious!!!
Wouldn’t it be awesome if The Badger State delivered like this ultimately for Trump and America come election night!!!


54 posted on 10/22/2016 12:37:32 PM PDT by edie1960 (edie1960)
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To: Impala64ssa
Jimmah was the SECOND worst pres. we seen in our lifetime, but everyone loved Billy.

Yep - he was the second worst and what's not to love about a guy with a beer named after him....

55 posted on 10/22/2016 1:29:42 PM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: CatOwner

It has been up and down all month, the way polls always are.


56 posted on 10/22/2016 2:39:22 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: CatOwner
You’ll notice the Trump campaign is no longer using this poll with their analysis like they did a week or so ago. If they did, it would show an overall slope downward for Trump and upward for Hillary since the end of September.

I heard Trump cite this poll only yesterday.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

57 posted on 10/22/2016 7:02:47 PM PDT by sargon (The Revolution is ON! Vote Trump!)
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To: edie1960
With 1.8 Million so far, Trump leads by a little over 11%,

False. No votes are counted anywhere until November 8.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

58 posted on 10/22/2016 7:06:09 PM PDT by sargon (The Revolution is ON! Vote Trump!)
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To: Impala64ssa

Most of the real service stations have bitten the dust of “progress”. People wanted lower prices, instead of service. I understand this is not necessarily true in a few places, including NJ.


59 posted on 10/23/2016 6:22:15 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Trump-Pence, 2016)
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To: Theodore R.

Yes in NJ and OR self service stations are illegal.


60 posted on 10/23/2016 2:30:11 PM PDT by Impala64ssa (You call me an islamophobe like it's a bad thing.)
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