Posted on 10/21/2016 6:58:35 AM PDT by mrs9x
Things are not looking good in the early voting in North Carolina. For whatever reason, Republican absentee ballot requests and returns are down significantly from 2012. Also, yesterday was the first day of in-person early voting, and the Democrats were well ahead of Republicans, 85K to 39K.
Can anyone explain what is going on in North Carolina? I know many Democrats there are old-time conservative Democrats, but I would like to see the numbers for Republicans go up.
This is not all bad. Consider this:
Concerning in-person voting:
The total number of in-person early ballots is down 3 percent from the same day in 2012, while those from registered Democrats are down 11 percent, from registered Republicans down 7 percent, but up among registered unaffiliated voters by 28 percent.
Translation: Republicans net +4 from 2012.
Concerning ballot requests:
Among the requested ballots, 40 percent are registered Republicans, 31 percent registered Democrats, 28 percent registered unaffiliated, and less than one percent are registered Libertarians.
Translation: +9 Republicans requested ballots.
Republicans need to get the convert requested ballots into returned ballots, and they’ll be looking good. From this point on, there is little room for the Democrats to improve their returned numbers. Look for Republicans to start to make up the difference...cross your fingers and say your prayers.
IIRC, a great majority of dems always early vote here in NC. I would prefer to vote on Nov 8th, but since I am taking my elderly relatives to the polls, we early vote. I would have to get them to different polling places because of where they all live. Anyway, we will wait till the next to the last day of early voting to go to the polls. Hoping a lot of other Trump supporters do the same? My reasoning for waiting is to not give the dems too much info, too early, on how many votes the R is getting. Praying nightly for Trump’s safety & silent majority to shock the world!
Looks like crap to me too.
Who is Nate Silver.
It’s likely for whatever reason. The way the ballots are processed from various post offices perhaps. Not enough information to conclude much of anything.
I had surgery on Wednesday so I wasn’t up to standing in line yesterday. I have another medical procedure on Election Day so I will eventually vote early . I live in Wake County which has a huge influx of folks moving in here, esp internationals. I think that iss part of O’s resettlement plan, dump refugees, etc into traditionally red areas. Plus I live in an area that gets redistricted because of that Gerry-mandered district.
Nate Silver’s 538 site.
Sort of bogus, since he seems to “forget” a lot of the state-level polling that is more favourable to Trump by heavily weighing MSM polling while de-emphasising professional houses. He has Ohio as leaning Hillary, yet professional house polling in Ohio has been leaning Trump +2-5% for over a month. Same with places like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, etc.
Cuz hysterical people don’t look at whole picture
Yes, the whole eastern portion of the state has been under water.
Sorry LS, I was not trying to be alarmist in posting this thread. I just missed the comparison to 2012 data. Too many data screens up at the same time!
Don’t believe that map for a second.
As an example, there was a poll in AZ that shows Clinton with a 5% lead. Yeah, well, there was that little thing about the internals having a 34% Dem advantage...which might exist in NYC or Chicago, but not in AZ. If anything, there is a Republican advantage in AZ.
OH is also going to be in Trump’s column - that’s why the NY Times has been saying that “Ohio isn’t a bell weather state any more” - because its going to be lost to Hillary and that isn’t convenient to her/their goal of depressing Trump’s supporters.
Pay no attention to this crap, and just get out an vote.
This is push polling
I don’t see an issue with early voting yet. Absentee voting is a little more problematic. At this point, the Republicans look like they had a lead of 40,000 or so in 2012. In 2016, the lead looks like about 20,000 or so. Romney won NC by about 100,000 in 2012.
I hear that 25% of NC voters moved there within the past four years so we don’t know their voting history. We do know that the Triangle has the highest % of PHD’s of any place in the country, now outperforming Boston and Silicon Valley.
This week in Johnston County, there is only one polling place in the entire county. Next week on Thursday the 27th, at least another 7 open up across the county. That’s when I’m voting.
That and u have NC state, UNC, NCCS, and Duke students who have been brainwashed.
I went to the library today too. Line still too long. May try one more time today. Don’t think, I’ll try on the weekend. I’ll try next week.
Are we going to the same library? Alston in Durham?
OK.. first of all.. Missouri isn’t going to go blue, nor will Arizona (where the AZ Republic’s poll had to survey D+34 to manufacture a 5-pt Clinton lead), and the dems can quit their fantasy of taking Texas. Ohio is still in the Trump column and that idea of Kentucky and Alaska being “tossup?” Fuggedaboutit.
I DESPISE “early voting”’!!!! It was invented by Dims, for the benefit of Dims!!
I’m voting Trump/Pence in person on November 8, and having a special lunch afterwards! REALLY!!!!
A lot of big schools, drawing increasingly from out of state.
I hadn’t heard the 25% of population moved in last 4 years figure, though. A lot of people are retiring there, too—my BIL, for one.
I live in the suburbs of Forsyth County, outside Winston-Salem. Obama won Forsyth County with 53% of the vote. I don’t drive that frequently in Winston-Salem neighborhoods.
It is hard to gauge the enthusiasm for either Clinton or Trump. In 2012, I saw a fair number of cars with Obama bumper stickers. I don’t think I have seen a single car with a Clinton bumper sticker. I have seen exactly one Clinton yard sign. One the other hand, I see a fair number of Trump yard signs/bumper stickers but not as many as Romney.
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