Posted on 10/20/2016 2:29:39 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
If you listened to the mainstream media, you might be tempted to believe that Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump in the polls by double digits. However, it’s no secret that polls can be manipulated to a yield certain result.
A group of statisticians and actuaries compiled data from previous polls to show how just how unreliable polls can be. They took data from a recent Fox poll from Oct. 14 that showed Clinton ahead of Trump by seven points and a WSJ/NBC poll from Oct. 16 that showed Clinton with an 11-point lead.
The statisticians first noted that both of these polls were “heavily skewed” toward Democrats. The Fox sample group consisted of 43 percent Democrats to 36 Republicans to 21 “other,” and the NBC poll showed 44 percent Democrats to 37 Republicans to 19 “other.”
Simply put, by selecting more Democrats to participate in the polls, they are tailored to favor a Democrat result.
When the actuaries calculated results using the same data from the same surveys with an even split of 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 20 “other,” they got a different result, which put Trump in the lead.
The statisticians also looked at past polls from 1980 and 1988, where Democrats were favored to win but ended up losing. In 1980, Jimmy Carter was ahead of Ronald Reagan 47 to 39. Reagan ended up winning the election in a landslide. In 1998, Michael Dukakis was ahead of George H. W. Bush by 17 points, and Bush ended up winning the election easily.
This election season has been unlike any other in recent years, and independent voters, as well as undecided voters, remain difficult to predict.
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativetribune.com ...
Don’t go there so soon. There’s a lot of work to be done yet before anyone starts predicting a landslide like these people did:
For the first time in my life the rats might actually tone back their election fraud.
Exactly! I prayed for this very thing...for God to expose them! He hears me!
Milt laid down on the sidewalk after the first debate. Trump does three large rallies per day.
The reason why things are deemed, “Once in a lifetime”...it’s usually because they don’t happen again.
And looking back at the result of an election in 1980 is akin to comparing 1980 to 1952. When I was voting in 1980, Ike seemed like ancient history to me.
We need to be careful. Get your hopes up...but work your tails off. FR can turn into a echo chamber. That is dangerous.
Skank ~ 27%
Been predicting this for over a year.
My prayer too!.....Deliver us from EVIL!!!
II Chronicles 7:14 a must do for Christians!
Don’t worry, after the last two presidential elections, there shouldn’t be anyone who is “overconfident”.
I just don’t trust the American people anymore.
That's because so many of them aren't actually Americans at all.
Great find!
Agree, I don’t trust the American People either. That they could actually make Barack Obama president twice ... a total hoax and fake, they’ll believe and vote for anything. If Shep Smith would throw his hat in the ring, they’d vote for him as the First Gay Newsman President. This “first” BS is a joke ... might as well vote for the St. Louis Cardinals.
There can be a legitimate reason to oversample one group or another. The sub-sample sizes should be based on expected turnout, which is usually based on historical data.
For example, if the turnout historically is Group D - 40% and Group R - 35% (plus 3rd parties, etc.) and the pollster thinks history is a good guide, then the sample should reflect that (legitimately).
However, if the actual turnout does not match the historical data, the result will be skewed. The pollster may try to make a better prediction by “adjusting” these numbers to make their prediction more accurate or to try to change public opinion.
The pollster doesn’t want to end up being wrong (for future credibility), but they could skew the numbers leading up to the election and then, at the last minute, switch to the “real” numbers.
It’s up to us to figure out which.
Face it, the people who support her are those that want the government to support them. The liberals have dragged this nation from a can-do country to a hand-out country. If Trump doesn't win, we would be lucky to get a Lindsey Graham type Republican elected in the future.
Go visit a Walmart or a downtown area of a city. You'll see a whole lot of strange folks that you would cross the street to get away from. Those are the ones voting for Hillary. Can't trust them. And there are a bunch of them.
I agree with you.
With everyone so pissed off, you would think the general population would want to throw all of the bums.
Land slide shmam slide! It’s a given the ruling establishment will cheat the hag into the WH. The critical question is what are the American people going to do about it after it’s done.
Praying that’s true. Persons complicit with fraudulent operations should be tried and shot.
Trump wins amongst married women.
Clinton amongst single women.
Not worth thinking about. As Sherrif David Clarke said at Trump's recent rally, "It's time for torches and pitchforks in America!"
He repeated it twice, with increasing emphasis.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.