The gurus over at the Bowl Championship Series do stuff like this in their spare time.
Like governing, it requires complicated calculations that are just too difficult for us plebs to understand.
Specific numbers don’t matter as much as the trend line.
Trump has dominated it for the past few months and even dirty tricks perpetrated by the GOP establishment and Democrats failed to drive him out of the race.
People are just disgusted with the status quo and are ready for change. Trump is the beneficiary of the mood.