So its hard to argue the race has not tightened, at least within the polling, but the polling showing Hillary up 7 or 12 is just ludicrous...
The question at this point is, is there a monster vote or not? If so, Trump wins solidly... if not, its a squeaker either way.... I think if its a squeaker, its still Trump’s... momentum will carry him over the top in a close race.
The debate is tonight, we’ll see what happens there... if anything...
I don’t think it has to be a “monster” vote exactly.
There are several blocks of voters this year that are not huge but significant when added together.
1) People who for a long time have believed the system is rigged. They don’t usually vote, they don’t identify with a political party and they don’t respond to polls. They are for Trump and there is no way pollsters have accounted for them in their samples.
2) Democrat crossovers who normally vote for Democrat, and can’t stand Republicans, but this year it’s Clinton they can’t stand. This includes union and non union blue collar workers, women, minorities. The pollsters may have a partial handle on this but may be vastly underestimated - many of these crossovers are very shy about admitting it.
3) Republicans like me. I’ve always voted Republican, always wishing the nominee could be more conservative, but voting R anyway. This year I feel like I get my wish: I believe Trump IS conservative, and I just can’t wait to vote for him. I have never been this motivated. Pollsters and pundits act like this kind of voter (like me) doesn’t exist. They talk as though conservative republicans are all like Mark Levin, embarrassed about Trump, hoping he’ll lose to make room for a GOPe like Ryan in 2020. I think there are more like me than they think. Why do they think his rallies are so well attended?
Anyway, I’m hoping there are enough people left with half a brain. This election couldn’t be more of a no brainer.
How do I know all this? It’s purely anecdotal.
I know nothing, but then again - neither do they!
I don’t think it has to be a “monster” vote exactly.
There are several blocks of voters this year that are not huge but significant when added together.
1) People who for a long time have believed the system is rigged. They don’t usually vote, they don’t identify with a political party and they don’t respond to polls. They are for Trump and there is no way pollsters have accounted for them in their samples.
2) Democrat crossovers who normally vote for Democrat, and can’t stand Republicans, but this year it’s Clinton they can’t stand. This includes union and non union blue collar workers, women, minorities. The pollsters may have a partial handle on this but may be vastly underestimated - many of these crossovers are very shy about admitting it.
3) Republicans like me. I’ve always voted Republican, always wishing the nominee could be more conservative, but voting R anyway. This year I feel like I get my wish: I believe Trump IS conservative, and I just can’t wait to vote for him. I have never been this motivated. Pollsters and pundits act like this kind of voter (like me) doesn’t exist. They talk as though conservative republicans are all like Mark Levin, embarrassed about Trump, hoping he’ll lose to make room for a GOPe like Ryan in 2020. I think there are more like me than they think. Why do they think his rallies are so well attended?
Anyway, I’m hoping there are enough people left with half a brain. This election couldn’t be more of a no brainer.
How do I know all this? It’s purely anecdotal.
I know nothing, but then again - neither do they!