ON RCP’s site this morning:
Reuters: Clinton+4
Bloomberg: Clinton +9
Rasmussen: Tie
LA Times: Tie
SurveyUSA: Clinton+2
Arizona Republic: Clinton+5
FOX News: Clinton+6
NBC: Clinton+6
I don’t know the methodologies of any of these, but calling one an ‘outlier’ simply means that they are outside the ‘norm’, which is clearly reflected in the list above. Only 2 even suggest Trump is even... and of course none show him ahead.
Obviously, I want Rasmussen to be correct. But these scare me.
Averaging together measurements that are performed in different ways does not improve the accuracy of the measurement taken in the way that proves correct.
Some recent article praised the value of averaging. There would be value if you were measuring the length of a floor and all the measuring people used the same tape measure. Then averaging the measurement would have value.
But if each uses a different tape measure, there is no particular value in averaging.
So you think that a +14 Dem is as valid as a +5 Dem when the same polls show a +11 voter enthusiasm for Trump.
You are assuming the polls are accurate when they have been proved wrong all year. I am saying nobody knows the true formula so they are all wrong. They most likely reflect the bias of the media.