Except that 2012 was D+6
It was a four point spread.
Switch of a few thousand votes would given FL and OH to Mitt.
Hillary is not going to get what Obama got - instead of D +2, it looks like its going to flat or R.
Hillary needs her base to show up - will they actually come out to vote?
They did in 2012 for Obama but no one’s excited about Hillary.
2012 was an dem Pres incumbent ,
Anyone an incumbent in 2016 ?..
No , it is 2000 election, the GOP base and blue collar are pissed off and fed up of 8 years of unleashed left wing hell and globalist crap.
What was that turnout ?
GOP +1
There's no denying that Republicans are furious, and they're not answering phone calls from pollsters. They're too pissed off to even speak.
To me, given the enthusiasm levels, this is looking a lot like Reagan/Carter. People were angry back then, too, and Reagan really never showed any strength in the polls until the very last minute. Anyone who can remember that time knows that the Media was genuinely surprised at the magnitude of Reagan's victory.
But even in 1980, when the response rates were much higher, they had Reagan trailing almost all the way up to election day.
If there's no "hidden" Trump vote, then this election will behave much like a typical election, and Trump probably won't win. If, on the other hand, this is a "change" election, then the Establishment won't know what hit them.
I honestly don't think we're really going to know what's going on until the night of November 8.
One thing for sure: I don't think any of these polls will cause a single Trump voter to stay home.
We can rest assured that Trump will get the turnout we're anticipating. Conversely, I think scads of tepid Hillary supporters will stay home.
It's quite possible that tomorrow night's debate will also be important. If Trump does well, I think we'll see significant movement in his direction during the final stretch.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!