Posted on 10/05/2016 7:39:21 AM PDT by pgkdan
The "unskewed polls" fiasco of 2012 will live in infamy for many years until usurped by an even bigger failed prediction. Unfortunately for conservatives, the mainstream media didn't miss a beat in weaponizing polls in favor of Hillary Clinton during the current campaign, leaving many of us demoralized and in search of answers. The pollsters are skilled at shorting certain samples (independents), adding others (Democrats), and then creating a unique top line that defies the data included in the poll itself. This is done in such a bold manner that it's almost as if the polling companies are daring us to start the next polling conspiracy.
I am still not a fan of recalibrating a poll and issuing a corrected number. However, anyone with a knowledge of modern elections should be able to tell that some things are wrong just by listening to the media narrative and looking at numbers available to anyone willing to click a mouse a couple of times. For the sake of comparison, I will be discussing elections from 1992 to present (the birth of the "big blue wall" of states).
SNIP
Before I proceed, let's get one thing straight. Most forecasters have Ohio solidly in red five weeks before the election. This is the same state that hasn't backed a loser in the general election since 1960, when its electors cast their votes for Richard Nixon. Many alert liberals jump on the math immediately, pointing out enthusiastically that President Obama would have still won in 2012 with 314 electoral votes without Ohio. What those folks fail to understand is that if Ohio drifts right, so does the rest of the nation. When it drifts left, so does the nation with it.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I think it is clear what is happening. The polls are less to discourage conservatives and more to keep liberals optimistic. If the actual numbers were being reported liberals would become too depressed to vote on election day. The media needs to create the impression of hope so that there is some chance for a miracle turn-around for democrats. Of course that is just not going to happen...
Yes.
The GOP is not a political party - its a business and lobbyists, politicians and consultants make out like Jesse James every election cycle at the expense of the clueless helpless deplorable electorate.
I was lost at the phrase ‘common sense’. The fact that the unscrupulous Hillary Clinton is still a candidate defies all common sense.
‘The media is playing us for fools.’ Really?
Pollsters are still using 2012 models
You can’t do that anymore with no Obama! It’s a TRUMP LANDSLIDE! I’m hoping! =P
I appreciate that he recalls that “unskewed polls” fiasco of 2012 (we heard it in 2008 also).
It is disconcerting to be (again) on the side that is saying “the polls are wrong”. Regardless, he makes some very good points....
And also regardless, it’s still “pretty close” even with these polls.
Dems have no shame. For them, the ends justify the means.
Trump should get the votes of 94 million unemployed
“As Maine goes, so goes the nation”
“As Maine goes, so goes Vermont.”
I think Virginia is being overlooked. It doesn’t get reported much in VA because ultimately the outcome didn’t matter, but Cuccinelli and Gillespie were facing yawning polling gaps and only barely lost their races.
I think Trump may have a shot here because he’s not that far behind that a lot NOVA progs will stay home if they aren’t so worried about a Hillary loss. There’s no big city turnout machinery in this state, so Trump could well pick it off.
I think the polls are skewed not to help Hitlery, but to not discourage liberals so they go and out vote for the left-wing down ballot candidates.
I expect that Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Newport News, will all go for Hillary, but VA Beach and Chesapeake are bigger and they'll go for Trump. Richmond will go for Clinton but the suburbs will go for Trump. NOVA will go for Clinton, but not by as large a margin as most think, and most of the rest of the state will go for Trump.
Don't write us off!
Well there's your problem. Common sense for normal people is the opposite of the same for democrats. It makes perfect sense that the rats would nominate a criminal, anti-American, extreme leftist.
As Falls Wichita, So Falls Wichita Falls
Trump win? That depends.
Even the mainstream media is reporting on the dead voters casting ballots and on illegals registering to vote. The fraud this year is going to be epic. If Trump wins the vote count, that means it was a landslide. If not, I would put no trust at all in the election totals reported by the corrupt urban districts democrats are counting on to steal the election.
We just have to put every minute we can spare into actually working to make the Trump win overwhelming. That means training as a poll watcher, volunteering with True the Vote, working Get-out-the-Vote efforts in swing states, donating directly to Trump’s campaign, and otherwise putting time and money behind saving America. The alternative is ugly beyond imagination.
“Well there’s your problem.”
Cranky, are you? We’re on the same side, my friend. Be nice.
I WAS being nice! honestly, I meant no offense, just pointing out how corrupt modern democrats are.
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