To: SE Mom
Here is Joe Bastardi's forecast this morning - his is left (west) of the NHC's official track, which is biased to the (flawed) GFS model.
This is a little hard to read, but it looks like Joe thinks the eye will stay about 120-150 miles off-shore until Saturday/Sunday... and then all bets are off from there... as a Cat 4 storm sits in the Gulf Stream and beats the snot out of the Carolina barrier islands.
165 posted on
10/03/2016 10:07:50 AM PDT by
alancarp
(George Orwell was an optimist.)
To: alancarp
...and now Bastardi's computer whiz Dr. Ryan Maue has posted this to twitter, which not only jives with the Bastardi forecast, but brings the 'Hazel Scenario' firmly into play for maybe 30-40% of these ensemble runs.
166 posted on
10/03/2016 10:17:46 AM PDT by
alancarp
(George Orwell was an optimist.)
To: alancarp
2PM GFS has eye cruising a few miles inland up coast of North Carolina!
168 posted on
10/03/2016 11:11:43 AM PDT by
steve86
(Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
To: alancarp
Great map, thanks. I like Bastardi and his approach. My gut, based on no knowledge has suggested the same. But I’ve been wrong before..
Being in east Central Florida makes me interested in this!
173 posted on
10/03/2016 12:39:50 PM PDT by
SE Mom
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