Posted on 09/29/2016 4:00:29 PM PDT by Thickman
Does Nate Silver have access to granular data contradictory to registration analysis (excellent work) by Freepers in their posts and blogs?
Hillary votes down, Trump turnout up.
We’re heading for the Dog Days of early October. I really hope that Mike Pence comes through for us in the next debate.
Hmmmm ..?? I know several years ago, a lot of states started using “same-day” registration .. so until election day, there could possibly be thousands or hundreds of thousands who register and vote the same day.
I’m not for this .. because it means you may not really know which of those registrations could prove to be invalid .. but I believe those who have not been voting have only done so because they didn’t feel there was anybody worth voting for.
I think some states call these votes, “provisional ballots” .. meaning they are only counted .. on a provisional basis .. or, the total won’t be known until the registrations can be verified.
I think this leaves the door wide open for a lot of fraud, but I’m not sure if that has ever been questioned or even proven.
Republicans have never developed ground games like democrats. Organized labor has been the backbone of getting the liberal vote out. They are benefitted by large concentrations of potential votes in inner cities. Traditional republican voters are more spread over larger geographical areas. We have to try though.
I think you’re right.
And the enthusiasm gap is our friend. Trump voters will wait in line for hours to cast their votes. Hillary voters are so lukewarm on her, they won’t be inconvenienced.
Nor will they turn out in bad weather.
Then there’s the Wild Card—the Monster Vote. It’s anyone’s guess, but it will be significant.
Pence should be able to make mincemeat out of an imbecile like Kane. This will be great fun!
There hasn’t been 65% eligible voter turnout since 1908. I go back and forth if that’s a good thing or bad thing. This cycle, I think high turnout is actually good for our side.
Freegards
Great point! I’m not sure if silver was trying to depress conservatives or might have had an honest oversight. The monster vote isn’t necessarily increased registrations rather all those who are already registered and haven’t voted. Also how many registered Democrats and then became unregistered or even registered Republicans to vote for Trump. And finally even in its own article he even mentioned some slight uptick in reservations in Battleground areas.
Again I don’t know if this is an attempt by silver to Gaslight. Sometimes it seems he’s trying to give honest analysis and other times his liberalness seems to show through.
It will be the '04 map with CO [04 red], PA [04 blue], VA [04 red] and NH [04 blue] in serious play.
She has almost no path to victory. She was in NH this week of all places! That's running around putting out fires in your defensive line...If Trump wins NH he doesn't need CO or VA. Yuge advantage.
Well, he could have followed to here from Twitter, I usually hit him once a week. He has no real natural understanding of the null set.
Uh, Nate wanted Johnson last election, and has his big chance now...
"In a 2012 interview with Charlie Rose he stated, "I'd say I am somewhere in-between being a libertarian and a liberal. So if I were to vote it would be kind of a Gary Johnson versus Mitt Romney decision, I suppose."
He said similar to Brian Lamb, with more emphasis on his ideals tracking with Johnson.
Nate is not a total douche, he's just wrong as much as any other public statistician because he makes assumptions based on his own flawed data...
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