In one of the other threads, I posted the internals. They way oversampled Dems in the PPP polls:
Florida - D+8
North Carolina - D+9
Pennsylvania - D+8
Virginia - D+5
Just imagine if Trump had been aggressive in the debate what the backlash would have been. They would have said she won no matter what.
They also oversampled women (53% to 47%).
I know we seem fond here of pointing that out, but that COULD be valid. Democrats have tended recently in presidential elections to vote more than R and I in that manner.
The big question, the one unknown this election that could make ALL these polls absolutely meaningless, is what is going to be the breakdown THIS election. Many of use believe and certainly hope, that the D+ margins are not going to be seen this time. My gut feeling is that D+ might still vote more that R, but by a (much?) smaller margin.
any idea how these numbers match up to the voting in 2012??
are their any links to show the breakdown or estimated breakdown by states of rats to GOP in 2012?
which is stupid because if anything there will be much higher GOP turnout.
I don’t know how accurate this is but:
Florida - D+8 2012= 50.01% rats, 49.13% GOP <1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012
North Carolina - D+9 2012= 50.39% GOP, 48.35% rats +2% GOP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina,_2012
Pennsylvania - D+8 2012= 51.97% rats, 46.59% GOP <5%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2012
Virginia - D+5 2012 = 47.28%R- 51.16% rats <4%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Virginia,_2012
Yep, they did the same thing CNN did after the debate. They stacked the polls with Dems.
Do the polling organizations adjust their results to reflect over/undersampling? It seems like the obvious thing they would have to do to make the statistics worth anything.