First time I’ve seen any pundit offer York County (PA) as a county that “must” be turned from D to R. I think he’s just listing every county that went more than maybe 8% or so for Obama last time.
But FWIW I don’t see York County going R even this time. That’s the biggest county for crimes in the area, and that includes Harrisburg. The evening news more often than not leads with a crime in York County, and more often than not that crime is murder by handgun.
I just looked at 2008/2012 PA election maps and York county went red both times.