one will loose one or two of them on average.
so he’s essentially saying his own analysis (as regards pct of victory) is nothing sharper than any armchair analyst could do, after drinking a six pack of brew in twenty minutes...
You are right in saying that anybody can do 50-50, but that isn’t all Nate does. His strength isn’t so much in the 50-50 realm but in the 67-33 to the 95-5 realm. A 67-33 prediction should be correct only two-thirds of the time, not more, not less. The outsomes are not independent of eachother, which gives another level of complexity.
Hillary’s odds of pulling a state that Mittens won have dropped to 50%, which means that some states—mostly AZ, NC, and GA—while on average coming up red, come up blue often enough that half of his simulations have one of them blue. Her odds of winning are only 1.5% above the flipping a Mittens state level, which means that in most of the simulations where she didn’t over-perform in one of these states, she lost.