Nate Silver currently disagrees. Once he gets on board it'll be over fur sure.
Nate will hold out for Clinton and the Democrats as long as he can. Otherwise he loses his paying audience and career.
That’s because he’s not (conveniently) counting THIS poll.
His last two polls, YouGov and Quinnipac, have Hillary up a combined 1.5 points. WELL within the margin of error from his last two.
Silver hasn’t factored this one in yet—give him a couple of hours. This won’t close his gap entirely, but should be good for a 3-5% boost in Colorado, and hopefully push Trump above 43% in polls-plus.
SIlver’s model is a decent statistician model, which means topping 80% is unlikely for anyone unless something approaching total collapse is happening.
FWIW-—on this date in 2012, Silver had Mittensat 20.3%. He continued to decline until the first debate, and did pick up some steam, but never topped 40% after June 3rd, and never was as high as Trump is now.
The graves poll is done by pat Caddell. Him I trust
Agreed
SIlver has it in now—good for a .8% bump in the overall odds to 43.2% Assuming the day closes on this number, it will be Trumps 2nd highest close after Sept. 20th (at least in the polls plus, which is what I follow). Hopefully tomorrow he can both close over 44.0%, his previous high, and have a good debate performance that keeps the numbers moving in the right direction for a week.
If he can get over 50% and Hillary becomes the under dog officially, the dynamic will likely change greatly.