After now seeing the internals here on FR, if their findings are basically a tie with a +8 democrat sample and far too few independents, Trump likely is up maybe 3 or 4 points.
If its R +, throw that out of the window.
Hillary is not going to get anywhere near what Obama got four years ago and indications out of FL is she underperforming there.
So the 2012 D +6 turnout model could be way off. Muhlenberg D +12 is in the realm of fantasy.