Recent polls in general: Taking all the polls into account, state as well as national, this is a close race. While most of the national polls of the past week give Hillary an edge, most of the polls in the battleground states contradict that message. (I am talking of polls that were conducted simultaneously. Not polls conducted two week ago and only released last week.)
My best guess is that as of two weeks ago Trump erased the edge Hillary developed after the conventions, and with the aid of a half billion of advertising. And this past week, Hillary has rebounded a bit, to a 1 point difference. This margin is totally inconsequential as compared to uncertainties over who will actually vote, how the undecided voters will break, and how many voters will peel-off the third party candidates and to whom will they shift.
Voter enthusiasm, the debates, Hillary’s health, world events, terrorism and race riots, and the sluggish economy are much more important than a 1 point margin in the polls.
Plus the polls are often wrong (in the statistical sense, meaning by more than their margin of error). In 2014 and possibly other recent years, when they have been wrong, they’ve been biased against the Republican. So, even if we were to be down 6 points on the day before the election, we still have a chance.
Wow. Thanks for all the info. Yeah they were WAY off in quite a few primary polls on both sides.