Posted on 09/21/2016 3:37:13 PM PDT by MichelleWSC3
Playing around with the Interactive Electoral Map. If you give Trump/Hillary all the states they will "probably" win the EV count looks something like T-206 H-217. With recent polls these are the states that are up for grabs: NV, CO, IA, MI, OH, PA, VT, ME, NH, FL.
If Trump holds NV IA OH FL that puts him at 265. Hillary takes CO PA MI puts her at 262. The remaining states ME (split) VT and NH. IF Trump could win NH and split ME 3:1 he wins 272 to Hillary (winning VT) 266.
However, if Hillary splits ME 3:1 and wins VT (Trump wins NH) then it's a 269/269 tie and goes to House of Rep's - which is where it gets tricky. Would the House led GOP vote Trump in or do they ultimately betray us all and vote Hillary in. Even if DEMs win back the House this year it wouldn't take effect until 2017
Play around and see what you guys think!
Trump will win. He holds all the Mitt states and adds FL, OH, CO, NM and VA and he wins even without PA.
I have Trump at 342 with the latest poll results from ME, NE, CO, NM, AZ, and NV. I believe he will ultimately seep every state in the south and PA and WI and IA.
I gave NH and MN to Hillary even though those are in play imho.
I don’t see him taking NM or VA, but I do see him taking FL, OH, and CO. He’ll also pick up NV and AZ and IA. Add the Carolinas and he’s in.
It will come to GOTV and turnout.
If enough Republicans turnout, Trump should cruise to a comfortable victory.
In the real world, that’s all that matters.
The possibility of a betrayal on that level (GOP-led House delivering the election to Hillary) is something to contemplate. That would make the Roberts Obamacare betrayal look like child’s play!
Right now, Trump is ahead in: NV, CO, IA, OH, FL, ME-2, NC, AZ
He is within 3 in: ME overall, WI, NH, RI
Not getting NM, PA, MI at this point
Therefore, as of tonight, I believe he is over 270. If he maintains momentum, there could be a few additional positive surprises on election night.
If it does go to the House, it would be the Congresscritters elected this November, but the vote is by state...and if the state delegation is evenly divided they would not vote for either one.
This is fun!
I just ran my own map and have been informed that Trump wins-280 to Clinton-258.
Trump wins ME2, loses the rest of New England. Wins the South excluding Virginia. Wins the Midwest and Rockies. Loses the upper Midwest (Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan. Loses the West Coast.
He can still lose either CO or NM and win, but not both.
Somehow my numbers are different. I have it going to 269 under your sort of likely scenario only if Hillary takes all 4 Maine votes and splits Vermont and NH.
“Somehow my numbers are different. I have it going to 269 under your sort of likely scenario only if Hillary takes all 4 Maine votes and splits Vermont and NH.”
—ME 4 EV can be split or all 4 won if the candidate takes the whole state. With the recent poll showing ME basically tied I figured it will probably split for either Trump or Hillary 3:1
No, me too, but I have it as 270 for Trump if he wins at least one vote there, versus 269 to 269 if Hillary wins all 4. But I could be missing something:
I am following on 538.com:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast#now
I know it has a liberal slant, but I respect his methodology and I enjoy all the numbers. I think his TRENDS are well worth noting.
Bottom line, I think the next state to awaken will be Wisconsin. And if Wisconsin goes Trump, it puts him over the top as of now, and several states will soon follow.
JMHO.
Wait. Rhode Island?
“This is fun!”
—I think if you start looking at the race in it’s truest form (by EV) then these silly national polls get put into perspective. We’ve seen in 2000 that one can win popular vote and still lose election
I could be missing too :-) I did it several times and based on mine if Trump holds NV IA OH FL then wins NH and either wins ME (all 4) or splits 3:1 he wins 273/272. If Hillary wins VT and gets ME 4 she wins 270/269, but if it’s split Hillary 3 Trump 1 then it’s 269/269
IF you didn’t see it there’s a button at the bottom where it splits ME votes 3:1 either way red/blue
“I think the next state to awaken will be Wisconsin”
-—Possible, but WI, like PA, has always been a tease state. IF I was betting tho I’d bet PA would awaken before WI - JMHO :-) Reason: Trump’s spending more time in PA and hasn’t really been to WI but once(?) since nomination. Their internals must show PA is more winnable than WI
No I played with that, that’s how I got to where I thought it was 270 with Trump taking one from Maine.
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