Posted on 09/21/2016 2:22:41 PM PDT by Ravi
Well I'll be damned. You're right! He can hardly fill a stadium. Wait...
“in the western suburbs of Chicago”
This explains it. The moderate Chicago suburbs are hardly representative of the rest of the country, much less of mostly rural and small town Iowa. Where I am in FL around the Gulf Coast there is a lot more excitement (and yard signs, etc.) for Trump than there was for Romney (and his rallies draw much, much larger crowds). I would imagine there must be more excitement in Iowa too since Trump’s doing about 10% better in the polls there than Romney got, which is a remarkably large shift. Of course, there are some Republicans who will not vote for Trump or only do so reluctantly, and I think that would be especially true of McCain enthusiasts, but don’t forget about Trump’s base, which is more enthused than I can remember for any candidate in ages.
I’ve also noticed that a lot of people tend to be reluctant to talk favorably about Trump, unless they already know the person they are talking to isn’t a Trump hater, because the backlash against Trump supporters from the intolerant left can be vicious. I wouldn’t trust office or that sort of discussions to be accurate. There are several people I know I would frankly never tell I’m supporting Trump (or even in some cases, people who know people who would be intolerant of those views, just in case they tell them—I don’t need to make my life more complicated after all).
This would indicate that Republicans have already gained 50,000 votes over 2012. It indicates Democrats showing little enthusiasm and Republicans slightly more enthusiasm.
This would hand Trump the win easily.
But you know anyone voting for Hillary before even the first debate is going to vote for her even if she is dead. Which isn’t out of the question...
“Don’t the early voting numbers in Iowa prove the point that enthusiasm is down?”
Early voting numbers are down even more for the Democrats, so no, I think there’s some other dynamic at work.
“I just don’t see it. I’ve never seen such apathy in the western suburbs of Chicago. Maybe there’s enthusiasm elsewhere.”
I think it’s an effect of the environment in which you’re currently situated. Chicago is Obamatown. I can’t help but think that Republicans living in such close proximity, would have their enthusiasm somewhat dampened.
I’ll bet it’s much the same for Republican voters who live in places like Los Angeles or New York city.
I can tell you for a fact, that enthusiasm is quite high in the red states. Where I live, even millennial are anti-Obama, and can’t stand Pickles the PIAPS.
It’s always been like this. I remember the same thing happening in 2012. The dems are very organized in the eastern part of the state.
Democrat absentee ballot requests on second day in 2014 were running two to one in favor of the Democrats. Less ballots this year requested on second day by both parties but Democrats have almost a three to on advantage. Both the ratio in ballots requested and lack of enthusiasm on our side looks like a problem to me.
If we dos not turn out in early voting the Dems and Media will use that as a fee ad for Hillary.
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