[Hieronymus]

These numbers are 538’s polls-plus forecast. Polls-only is slightly worse but getting better every day.

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It is interesting that polls-only has been lagging behind both polls plus (which I graviatate towards as well) and the now-case. However such distincitions may be lost on those on this thread who can’t distinguish between the public person and the activity. Most people don’t seem to be aware that he has three models, so one can take one’s pick depending on how one wants to way barious factors.

Silver has his opinions, but primarily what he does is produce models that analyze polls in a very sophisticated manner. The models are somewhat constrained by the very fact that they use polls, but if one wants to keep up with the polls at all, I don’t know of a better site than 538.

[Lisbon1940]

Polls-plus is more favorable because it includes economic data that historically favors the out party.