“likely-to-vote probability”...
I applaud the effort to find a reasonable “likely voter” profile but the Obama factor- racism- distorts the last two presidential elections.
People who want to vote against a Caucasian have no reason to turn out for Hillary!.
And they mix an historical ‘likely voter’ model with self-proclaimed ‘likely voters’ so one can’t adjust the results to match a different ‘likely voter’ profile.
So this poll is useless, except to the media.
Most polls apply their own “special sauce”.
Individually, they all need to be taken with a grain of salt.
It is more important to observe the trending.