Q19: What county do you currently reside in?(OPEN ENDED – CODED INTO CATEGORIES)
1. Southeast (including Lehigh Valley)...........40%
2.Southwest......................................18%
3. Remainder of State............................42%
Overall, women are heavily for Hillary, the men are split exactly evenly. Whites are split exactly evenly, non whites are 68% to 17% for Hillary. It's about what I would expect and don't think it will change much.
It's the welfare class in Phila and Pittsburgh that will win the state for her. If there's anything that will get them off the sofa and semi sober for a few hours it's the fear of losing their vast array of “benefits”. While I don't expect Trump to throttle the benefits back, they have been trained for generations that Republican = no welfare and that's a threat to their entire lifestyle.
That's a fishy poll, I don't care where you're from.
Anyway, then: if Hillary is at 47% with a +- 5.5% MOE, that means her support could range from 41.5% to 52.5%, and Trump at 39% could be between 33.5% and 44.5%, right?
Thus, Trump could theoretically be leading Hillary %44.5 to 41.5%, right?
I'm just trying to ascertain if I'm understanding such issues correctly. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
These stats, of course, are not including other types of errors which also apply, namely things like "coverage" error and non-response error, for instance.
See: Polling Fundamentals for some of the information I was looking at when researching polling.
In any event, it's non-controversial to observe that a 5.5% MOE poll is pretty much garbage, and if I was Donald Trump I'd keep up the pressure in PA. I certainly wouldn't rely on this poll as a justification for not fighting for the state...
Vote Trump!