Yeah, this AA blip is a little different from the earlier one. I don’t see what would have caused it, though. What has happened in the last few days that would cause such an abrupt change in AA opinion. I’d like to see it persist but I’m skeptical. I’ll bet it settles back to baseline like the other one.
IMO, the health issue. I also think the subgroup sample size is pretty small, so a few people shifting in this group will cause a significant change in the average. The most stable group, and the group that I think is the largest, is the 35-64 age group. This group shows a significant shift in Trump's favor too.
-- I'll bet it settles back to baseline like the other one. --
It may, but I think there is a new baseline, maybe around 10% rather than 4%. Last time the uptick was one day only, persisted for the 7 days until that sample rolled off. This time there are three consecutive (and substantial) upticks for Trump, putting three "Trump-favorable" samples in the 7-day average.
Like many groups, blacks look to their peers for approval. As more and more blacks express support for Trump, it encourages others to take a second look. His visit to Detroit was powerful, and has a ripple effect.