[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

A slight down tick from yesterday; most likely statistical noise.

[WashingtonSource]

Still holding up!

[BlueStateRightist]

This poll is more valuable if you only look at it in 7 day increments. Day to day changes are noise. From this perspective start evaluating the poll from Aug 26 onward and you get a sense of what the race is doing over the past week.

[KavMan]

How the hell can TRUMP lose?

Too many good things happening to TRUMP!

Zip App maker says TRUMP will win when TRUMP was polling like 10 points down

Cafe Press says TRUMP is outselling Hillary & they are like 4 for 4 for past Elections

Helmut Norpoth says TRUMP will win & he is very very credible! Since 1912 since Primaries started his Primary model has only been wrong ONCE in 1960 when Kennedy beat Nixon but don’t people say the mob stole it for Kennedy?

Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton 52.5% to 47.5% in the popular vote and the probability is down to 87% from 97% predicts Professor Helmut Norpoth

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-norpoth/trump-nearcertain-to-defe_b_9403762.html

[InterceptPoint]

I believe that the best way to use the USC/Dornslife poll is for getting some idea about the general Trump vs Hillary trend.

One way to do this is to take the basic polling data which runs from early July to the the present and make Moving Average Calculations on that data. This basically applies a low pass filter to the data. It gets rid of the "noise" in the polling data. The downside is that it will lag the real time data.

So here are my plots of the "Trump Margin" for the full data set in blue and the 7 Day (Gray) and 14 Day (Orange) Moving Averages. What this shows is that Trump has mostly led in the race. He took a big jump up during the GOP convention but took a big downturn during and for some time after the Dem Convention. But the trend has been very definitely up for Trump since about mid-July to the present.

Take a look:

[Don Hernando de Las Casas]

I have never heard of this poll, but I take it that it is good? Reliable? Has it been around for awhile?

[edie1960]

Today’s People’s Pundit Tracker has Trump with his largest lead yet.
Trump @ 41.9% to Hildabeast @ 39.2 (first time she’s dipped below 40)
Ergo Trump up 2.7%
Hard to find updates on the UPI tracker on weekends. It has contradicted the other two lately, showing her up.

[dp0622]

What about all this #### about hillary that just came out. Should have been one day included today and I thought it would make a bit of a difference.

I guess majority will find out about it on news shows after labor day holiday.

[Brown Deer]

[Innovative]

Certainly better, than the other way around, but the bottom line is that it’s too close to call.

It will all depend on actual voter turnout.

Trump voters need to make sire to get out the vote.