If we lose Va., we must make it up in Pa., Mi, Wisc.Minn, part of NH.
Trump doesnt need MI, WI, or certainly MN (although the more the merrier if he can get them). VA looks increasingly unlikely, but thats not a necessity either. I think Trumps most likely paths to the presidency at the moment if he keeps Romneys states are:
-FL, OH, and PA
-FL, OH, NV, IA, and NH
The latter will only get him to a tie but he would most likely win the vote in the Republican controlled House. He could win outright with that last scenario if he also adds the 1 electoral vote from Maines Congressional District 2. PA and NH will be the most challenging states out of those two scenarios, but this poll shows hes still very much in contention in PA and last month even Nate Silver was saying that Trump would win NH. Trumps lost support in NH since then, but it shouldnt be that hard to get them to come back to the fold.
(If he could win MI, it would make up for PA or OH if he loses either of those, but I think a win in PA and OH would be more likely. MI+WI or MI+two of the small swing states (NV, IA, or NH) would make up for a FL loss if he gets PA and OH, but I think hes much more likely to win FL than MI.)