Posted on 08/28/2016 4:43:29 PM PDT by dontreadthis
[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”….
The “Monster Vote“ is the name attributed to the largest voting bloc in U.S. history. The voters who have/had given up on the political process because it seemed futile to vote for a rigged system where nothing ever changes. –Outlined Here–
However, we first noted the surfacing of the Monster Vote in relation to the political outsider Donald Trump toward the end of 2015. It was, and is, a rather controversial theorem because the voting bloc would make all media polling completely irrelevant.
Throughout the latter part of 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016 we put our research antenna on high alert to see if the indications were real. We paid a statistician to model the data we collected. We made predictions which, if the bloc was accurate, would stun the professional political class.
Trump rally illinois 4
Tracking social media, geographic “non-media polling” and alternate media matrices led us to believe Trump would dominate in the presidential primary. The predictions modeled the results with uncanny accuracy. Gobsmacking accuracy.
A few months later the New York Times began quietly evolving it’s electoral modeling. Washington Post political writer Bob Costa began talking about something that he too was noticing which tracked with our own research. Large numbers of the electorate who never engaged in the political process before were becoming increasingly visible.
Throughout this entire year there have been indications the “Monster Vote” is very real, but you have to look carefully to see them – and, obviously, you must inoculate yourself from conformational bias. 400,000 donations to Trump less than $200 in June was one such example. The social media app Zip App is yet another. 2,000,000 views of an innocuous Trump facebook video within 24 hours is another.
It’s a tenuous discussion because everyone wants to belittle anyone talking about it (looking at you Rush Limbaugh), and simultaneously those holding Cold Anger intensity don’t talk about it – everyone just goes about their business, yet everyone seems to know.
Well, the left-leaning Tampa Bay Times has just dropped a big bit of data which seems to also confirm the existence of this phenomenon:
“More than 25% of the inbound mail-in or absentee ballots in the upcoming primary, have NEVER VOTED BEFORE“:…
[…] “This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber and one of the foremost experts on Florida campaigns and politics. “I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.”
As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.
In other words, these are not “likely voters” surveyed by most pollsters or targeted by sophisticated political campaigns. The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.
“The first thing I did was go back to my data people and said, ‘Are you sure you ran this right?’ “
They had. The data crunchers looked at who requested mail ballots and who is returning them, and categorized each voter by a zero, one, two, three or four — depending on how many of the last four primaries they voted in.
[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.” (read more)
florida coc trump poll♦ Remember, even in honest scientific polling – the poll methodologies are based on “assumptions”, or inputs into the collected poll samples in order to make them representative of the anticipated turnout.
♦ Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete. As a consequence any poll data that is relying on obsolete sample methodology is going to be significantly inaccurate.
If the current ballot data reported in Florida (which does indeed line up with the changes in the Florida voter data-base) extends even remotely similar to the other states throughout the nation, the prior prediction graphic below might even be understated:
I suspect that all 200 million residents of Florida will vote for Hillary.
Make sure the new voters you know are registered to vote! Time is running out.
None of those people signed up to vote because Hillary was running. Maybe a % for Bernie, but like most for Trump.
>>I suspect that all 200 million residents of Florida will vote for Hillary.<<
That’s a pretty funny post right there.
I wonder if many are former New York state residents that retired in Florida?
THANK you, President Trump, for re-newing the American spirit.
Please pass this on to fellow Floridians
What signs are you all seeing on the ground?
Massive Democrat fraud or new voters brought in by Trump. Hillary inspires no one.
If they’re voting for Trump; they are real voters.
If they’re voting for Clinton; they are fraudulent.
Double-your-money-back guarantee on that one.
It’s an old Democrat vote-fraud trick to cast absentee ballots in the names of people who don’t usually vote. The Dems get an even bigger kick out of it, when the non-voters are Conservative.
Be forewarned, ye stay-at-homes.
I pray it’s not the Democratic prone Puerto Ricans who are fleeing their socialist paradise island and flooding into Florida.
Had they voted in general elections just not primaries ?
we got to get a big lead for Trump before the dead people start voting.
Yep, dead or alive.
Tamlpa Bay area Muslim population centered on USF. Odd to see it in a state primary though. The general in November, yes, but a primary seems odd. It will be a big story.
hehe
Voting in 2 states. Make that 400 million.
Except those in the Keys who still think they can vote for Bernie
If all the skeletons in hillary's closet vote Trump, Trump wins hands down.
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