Absentee ballot returns show spike in unlikely voters weighing in on Florida’s primary

Miami Herald ^ | August 25th, 2016 | By ADAM C. SMITH

[Mariner]

The political team at the Florida Chamber of Commerce has come across a remarkable trend this campaign season: A huge spike in mail voting by people who rarely vote in primary elections.

Almost half of the mail ballots returned so far for Tuesday’s primary election have come from Floridians who voted in either one or zero of the past four primary elections. That means a big, decisive chunk of the vote will come from people who have not been polled, and potentially not courted, targeted or accounted for by countless campaigns across the state.

“This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber and one of the foremost experts on Florida campaigns and politics. “I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.”

As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.

In other words, these are not “likely voters” surveyed by most pollsters or targeted by sophisticated political campaigns. The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.

“The first thing I did was go back to my data people and said, 'Are you sure you ran this right?’ ”

[TontoKowalski]

There's some merit to what you say, but it must also be remembered that Romney was an awful candidate, and as time has proven... not a very good man.

Viewed in total, voters have an instinct about these things.

Romney was the first time I ever left the top of my ballot blank. Not a courageous decision, mind you, since I live in a very red state. Still, I can't blame others for declining to support him either. I hope he was the last "hold you nose" candidate I have to consider.

[absalom01]

Well, the primary is in three days. We shall see which way this plays on Tuesday.

If this trend for “new voters” continues in the general, this only re-emphacises the need for a strong GOTV ground game. If there was ever an election for FReepers to take a couple of weeks of vacation and go provide the ground troops, this is it.

[bunster]

I don’t understand. Help. Florida had a primary election in March — what is this Aug 30 “primary election” for?

[uncbob]

I don’t understand what the article is saying

855,000 primary votes by mail

That is unbelievable

What is the breakdown —GOP Democrat—Independent and for who ?

[reasonisfaith]

I have good news for you. If this were fraud, Trump would have lost the Florida primary.

[Hostage]

> “The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.”

What about the Independents? That’s the key.

[Kozy]

What we are seeing is the Target Effect. In April Target issued their if you think you are a woman at that moment you can use the woman's bathroom. It's customer base screened but management held firm, no pun intended” to their deviant philosophy.
So what happens? A silent boycott by middle America, their customer base. They slowly found other stores, online whatever to buy merchandise. Sales are down over 2% and the stock value has collapsed from $83.00 to just below $70.00 or 15% in 4 months. No picketing in front of stores, no rioting in the streets, no angry protesters at the annual shareholder meeting etc. Their customers just walked away and they aren't coming back. This is the Target Effect, know your customers and don't antagonize them.

In Florida and across the country, Democrats and Republicans has antagonized the American people. They aren't saying anything yet but they will vote and they will vote like never seen before. The Target Effect coming to a voting booth near you.

[uncbob]

If they are talking about the PAST primary then other sates should also have seen a large number of voters who had rarely voted

Something isn’t right

[CaptainK]

It’s the primary run off election for the Florida senate seat that Rubio is running for even though he said he wouldn’t.
He has a competitor.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article97946442.html

[Kozy]

The voters realized that Mitt was weak and not a leader. McCain was and is a nutty old man. Why vote for either? Trump is everything Obama, The White House and Hillary aren't. He is a leader, he speaks straight from his heart, he isn't Washington and Trump understands America today in 144 characters.

[calljack]

Voter fraud leaves evidence that can be discovered via statistical analysis. A big jump in new registrations in one state should correlate with a big jump in registrations in other states as well. If you only have a big jump in one state and that state goes to Clinton, it is obvious fraud. I started looking at the statistical footprint that voter fraud leaves behind in the Florid debacle in 2000, and it becomes very easy to spot. Does nothing to prevent it, but makes it easy to see.

[PeteB570]

Well, I’ve been polled twice now in the past week.

Replied Trump and R’s both times.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Pollsters are like Cable News Stations....are behind the times...and fading fast. Their death knell will be arriving on the morning of November 9, 2016!!! Nothing is as outdated as an idea whose time has paased. “Big Brother”, all of you...Democrats, Republican Establishment, the Obama/Clinton media, the NAACP, the CBC...Black Lives Matter (All Lives Matter will win out), etc. are going down...right into the cesspool of forever obscurity!!! CNN is failing, losing thousands of viewers, every minute, as i write this!!!

GO DONALD J. TRUMP!!!!

[Ingtar]

If they are real people, eligible to vote, no problem.

[bray]

Wonder who these never voters are voting for??? Fear the Trumpnami.

Pray America wakes

[ncalburt]

Senate and house primaries

[bunster]

Thank You. That clears things up a bit. So, this absentee mail response doesn’t really reflect on Nov election, Right?

[CaptainK]

I’m not sure how it will reflect on the November election.

[WMarshal]

Can you feel that? It is the wind of change.

[LTC.Ret]

“Those ‘new’ primary voters included more than 86,000 Democrats, and more than 90,000 Republicans.”

Let’s just hope and pray that all those “new” voters showing up are actual, living, and legal voters in one single jurisdiction. I’ve heard for years about folks who maintain a summer home up north and a winter home in Florida routinely voting in BOTH places. These folks need a new home in some jail somewhere!!!