Posted on 08/25/2016 8:25:03 AM PDT by usafa92
Nate was right in 2012.
But he hasn’t been right about Trump even once.
So do we leave the UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll alone too? lol
People coming out of slumber to vote again or for the first time do not figure to Nate. Neither do democrat cross-overs.
Nate was only right because he had polling straight from the Obama people lol
Jealousy?
Silver decries messing with polls, and then he says to add 6 points to this poll.
What a numbnutz.
A stopped clock is correct twice a day.
Little Nate was correct once.
“Still haven’t figured out why the enlightened jews in this country hate Trump so much.”
Enlightened? They left Judiasm when they popped ot of the womb. They are all Capos, like George Soros, who worship their wallets and Socialism/Marxism. They would finance the Nazis today! It’s almost as though the only “real Jews” left in the world today are in Israel, and they are there without any support from their “brothers and sisters” living in America.
“people often misstate or misremember their vote from previous elections.”
[citation needed]
Silver totally blew the 2015 British general election polling too, FYI.
Prediction:
The polls will converge as we get closer to Election Day. The Nate Silver Projections and these polls will grow closer and closer to the USC Poll as we move through September and October. Nate Silver will stop talking about his phony 6 point “error” in the USC Poll.
By the night before Election Day we should know who is going to win. I think it will be Trump. Hope I’m right.
The methodology of the USC poll might be considered experimental, but we are in an age of experimental polls.
In the old days, you’d call (landline) phones. Today, you simply have to also call a certain percentage of cellphones, or else make some other adjustment for the fact that a lot of people today don’t have landlines. Among the phone-based polls are some that use an automated voice and others that use a live caller. Also, the length of the interview varies greatly. I know a poll-taking firm that buys lists of registered voters with all the demographic information pre-coded. His interviews consist of 3 to 5 questions, and take only a minute or so. Some other interviews take 20 to 30 minutes to complete. You get very different results, nowadays, in live-caller versus automated-caller polls, and in long interview polls versus short interview polls.
Along with phone-based polling, there is “internet” polling. Firms assemble “panels” of respondents, and recurrently ask questions of them. Basically, the same pool of people are asked, and asked again repeatedly through the course of a year. The firms try to keep the pools representative of the American population, but mostly they rely on weighting responses by demographic data.
The USC poll is of the second variety, with some twists unique to it. As to whether it has a bias as compared to the polls that Nate Silvers likes, isn’t the real question. The real question is why do live-caller polls favor Hillary by an average of something like 6 points, relative to automated-caller polls?
What I find interesting, is that no one knew where Silver was getting his data.
Yet he called every state exactly.
It’s almost as if he were given the answers in advance of the test.
Because they are not enlightened.
I guess he doesn’t like the UPI poll either (Trump +1), or the YouGov poll (Clinton +3), or the Zogby poll( Clinton +2). I’m sure he despises the Pew poll (Clinton +4).
Poor Nate is running out of polls to use.
Uh I’m a Jew and pretty enlightened! You are obviously talking about the guilt ridden, self loathing or once a Dem always a Dem Jews who are of the same herd mentality as black Americans.
Personally I don’t understand how a group of fairly educated and self sufficient people can vote democrat period but some mysteries are beyond comprehension:-)
The idea that people tend to remember voting for the winner comes from the results of the polls themselves. When polled, a higher percentage of people claimed to have voted for the winner of the previous election than what the actual results were. The author seems to interpret that to mean people either don’t remember or they are lying. It never occurred to him that people who voted for the loser in the previous election are less likely to participate in a poll.
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