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To: BeadCounter

Was kinda figuring it would go up every day for about 4 days because it’s a seven day rolling poll and the speech last week and the visit to MO were yuge.

Oh well, he’s still up!!


3 posted on 08/22/2016 7:24:41 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: dp0622

Yea, I was surprised at the shift.


4 posted on 08/22/2016 7:25:54 AM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: dp0622

Yea I was thinking the same thing. I wonder if perhaps weekend polling caused a slight dip? I am hopeful it will continue to climb this week. Trump has a speech in Mississippi this Wednesday I think in a city that is 80% Black. Will be interesting to see polls after that.


6 posted on 08/22/2016 7:27:42 AM PDT by IVAXMAN
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To: dp0622

Trump visit to MO? What is MO? Missouri?


28 posted on 08/22/2016 8:10:25 AM PDT by TexasCruzin (Trump is the man. #TrumpPence16)
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To: dp0622
You need to look at the day that falls off the seven day average to get a sense at what might drive the new posted number. In today's case, a terrible day for Hillary and a great day for Trump fell out of the seven day average. So it is somewhat predictable that there would be some tightening today. Tomorrow, a decent day for both Trump and Hillary falls off but unless it is replaced by some dramatic movement on either side in the polling day they accumulate today, the overall average numbers won't change much. Then, the next day, a terrible day for Hillary drops off, and a fantastic day for Trump drops off. So barring any major news in the next two days, I suspect Wednesday's poll will show significant tightening.

But don't get lost in the daily published numbers. Instead, just take a broader view at the graph of the numbers. That gives a better sense of how the race is trending. When you do that, you should see that like every election, the race is still currently to volatile to call. And despite the media narrative, the support for either candidate is nowhere near set in stone. That's good news for Trump because he doesn't have a 30 year career in politics that he has to overcome to convince people he's something new. He's statement to blacks regarding "what do you have to lose" is really a call to all voters. If they liked Hillary's record, her support would be stable. They don't. And she can't make it disappear. They know what they get with her and it's not good. Not sure with Trump. So why not give him a try.

35 posted on 08/22/2016 8:43:30 AM PDT by Rokke
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