“How reliable?”
This is a daily, rolling seven day, tracking poll that has been running since early July. Each days sample is about 3,000 people. Trump lead by 7 in this pool 7 days after the RNC. Hillary move to a 2 point lead 7 days after the DNC. Hillary had held a small 2 to 4 point lead in this poll up until a few days ago.
My guess is this poll is far more accurate than any of the network polls around.
I believe the race to be a dead heat at this point with a slight edge to Trump at this point.
I agree. I've been telling the Freepers the same thing for at least a couple of months.
But I expect most of the polls will gravitate to something like the truth over the next couple of months. They may or may not get it right but they will be in the ballpark. At this point the polls (apparently excluding the USC poll) are just Propaganda Engines for the Hillary Campaign - totally useless.
But I'll be surprised if we don't know who the winner is going to be the day before the election. The polling will get more accurate and less biased over time. Reputations need to be preserved - actually an impossible task but the MSM/Pollsters keep right on trying.
In any case I expect Trump to win and I expect the polls going forward will start to lean more and more in his direction. Some ups, some downs, but a general trend in his favor.