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According to 538Blog, RAND was one of the most accurate polls in the 2012 presidential race.
They were off by less than 1 percent in the 2012 spread although I think that was a combined judgment of polling data + RAND expert panelists. Trump goes up when he isn’t in the news making major mistakes, it is a pattern that has been played over and over this season. Fingers crossed it is upwards and onwards from here !