So how come the swing States are trending all toward Hillary with pretty huge leads?
They are?
If Hillary is ahead is in them, why are the polls tied?
She should be up by double digits.
In August 1988, Dukakis enjoyed a near 20-point lead.
Hillary can only manage to come out ahead by a squeaker.
They are not. In fact Crooked Hillary has pretty much written off PA, only campaigning in Philadelphia. Why would she even bother with Philly if she thought she had the state locked up? Well she needs 120% of the Philly vote instead of the traditional 110%.
Polls are typically using 2012 turnout methodology when we know that Republican enthusiasm is much higher this year based on the primaries. If polls were using R +1 instead of D +5 turnout models we would have polls closer to reality. Then add in that Trump has double digit lead among Independents.
Different polling organizations.
The issue always becomes, “How do you construct a scrupulously honest poll?” and “How are these polls conducted considering what a scrupulously honest poll would look like?”
The state polls generally lag the national polls. Hillary got a bump earlier this month, which showed up first in the national polls, so the media trumpeted those. Now that her national lead is fading, the media is naturally going to push the state polls, which still look good for her. Predictable as humidity where I live.