Housing, Industry, Inflation Data Will Show If Economy As Sluggish As Retail Sales

Investors Business Daily ^ | August 15, 2016 | ED GRAHAM

[expat_panama]

A raft of data out Tuesday morning will provide a signal as to whether growth is as tepid as the latest retail sales report showed, or whether the strong July jobs report is more reflective of reality.

Unexpected strength could reverse the recent pullback in Treasury yields, mortgage rates and the dollar if markets begin to price in a stronger likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before March 2017, as the CME Group Fed Watch tool now shows.

Tuesday's read on July housing starts and building permits, released by the Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m. ET, may signal whether homebuilding is due for an acceleration thanks to low mortgage rates and improving wage gains. Yet other factors, such as home prices rising faster than wages, may limit the upside.

Economists expect housing starts to dip to an annual rate of 1.18 million...

Also on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., the consumer price index will show whether inflation is as tame as the Fed seems to think...

IBD'S TAKE: Should investors care about Fed rate increases? Because there's no simple answer, investors would be better off focusing on overall stock market conditions to know whether the time is right to buy shares. Visit IBD University to learn proven rules about timing stock purchases.

Lately, grocery prices have been falling while prices for food away from home have been rising...

The third significant data release Tuesday is industrial production, released by the Fed at 9:15 a.m. Economists expected a 0.3% rise in overall output, with manufacturing up 0.2%.

Industrial activity has been rising modestly in recent months...

On Monday morning, the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Index unexpectedly fell to negative 4.51 in August from July's positive 0.55.

[expat_panama]

There's a bunch of stuff here about the parts of the economy that have been improving. OK, so the election party line is that the econ's in the terlit. That's politics and reality is that regardless of faction ardor people still do w/ their own money what they want.

Whether it's good for Trump or not there still are good things happening and there still are a lot of folks paricipating.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

It's foreigners who are buying American properties. American home ownership is at record lows.

[expat_panama]

 

 

 

Good Morning everyone!!

Something for the whole family: major stock indexes have powered up to all time highs in higher volume and gold/silver are back up ($1,349.56/$20.06).  They must be optimistic about this stuff today--

8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Core CPI
8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Core CPI
8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Building Permits
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
9:15 AM Industrial Production
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization

--and have decided to forget this stuff:

• It Won’t End Well for Global Elites J. Robert Smith A Hillary win this November assures an exacerbation – and likely acceleration – of troubles and conflict for a decaying, fractious society.
• The US Won’t Be Fixed by Bedtime Christopher Chantrill The ugly truth about the world is that periods of normal politics like ours, where things are settled by negotiation and compromise, are followed by Times of Troubles
• The Left Refuses to Learn David Solway A plague of ignorance and intellectual torpidity has descended like a cloud of locusts on the mental horizon of a once privileged but now vassal culture that no longer wants to think for itself or to work for the truth.
• WSJ and Trump - 8/16/16 We know what Hillary has said and done.  Could Trump be worse?
• Two Lingering Suspicions About Econ. Statistics
• Bubble? What Bubble? There's No Bubble....

[1rudeboy]

Starting to hear rumbling in Motown about how the most recent batch of auto sales numbers (good ones) are being driven by credit. So the boom here might be drawing to a close.

[expat_panama]

Foreign buyers purchased $102.6 billion of residential property in the U.S. between April 2015 and March 2016,

From what I can tell this is a huge chunk of the total market, and must be a serious factor in the trade deficit.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

Starting to hear rumbling in Motown about how the most recent batch of auto sales numbers (good ones) are being driven by credit.

And that being funded by the Fed's printing and bond buying. Nothing has been fixed.

[expat_panama]

...driven by credit. So the boom here might be drawing to a close.

Maybe.  American bowers and lenders are not idiots though and they generally don't finance what won't pay off.

[expat_panama]

And that being funded by the Fed's printing and bond buying.

Everyone says that but one thing is that Fed rates are a very small percentage of total US lending, and the other thing is that fed interest action usually happens after private rates (like the prime) move.

Governments don't control economies because they can't.

[DAC21]

“Starting to hear rumbling in Motown about how the most recent batch of auto sales numbers (good ones) are being driven by credit. So the boom here might be drawing to a close”

Over a trillion dollars of Auto debt last I heard, a lot of it will never be recouped. The shady loans moved from housing to Autos and it wasn’t an accident, it was part of the Detroit bailout.

Home Mortgages are rediculously low yet the Homes for sale in my neighborhood aren’t moving. One home down the Street has been on the market nine months and another three months. I don’t even see Realtors walking Customers through them. But the economy is great so we are lead to believe.

[Recompennation]

Here’s where I rant and rave about obamaaa’s conomy with the late morning breakfast as demanded, morning beer and lottery ticket purchases, clogged highways with going nowheres, and car full yards, motor o’cyles,trucks and boats,big shiny wheels... O some are doing just fine.All the socialistic vote purchasing is also thein the way of the you didn’t build that business operations everywhere. Give money with something to do for it. That’s jobs.

[Recompennation]

Here’s where I rant and rave about obamaaa’s conomy with the late morning breakfast as demanded, morning beer and lottery ticket purchases, clogged highways with going nowheres, and car full yards, motor o’cyles,trucks and boats,big shiny wheels... O some are doing just fine.All the socialistic vote purchasing is also thein the way of the you didn’t build that business operations everywhere. Give money with something to do for it. That’s jobs.

[nclaurel]

94 million Americans not in the work force may be good to you. Under employment is wide spread. The difference I see today is everyone expects to be in debt and continues to spend on whatever they want. Unlike years ago when people tried to budget, I know no one under 40 who even thinks budget. Eventually it will fail.

[expat_panama]

94 million Americans not in the work force...   ...Under employment is wide spread...   ...everyone expects to be in debt and continues to spend on whatever they want...   ...no one under 40 who even thinks budget. Eventually it will fail.

Usually in life there're always opportunities available and always things we can do.  We don't hear that much lately on the FR so what the heck, I'll sing along:

Gloom, Despair & Agony...

Much better; now everyone will feel sorry for me too and take care of me.

[nclaurel]

Twist the point I made if you will and continue to pretend Obama has offered opportunities. Patriots do continue to reach out to improve their lives and this country, but a vast number of Americans and/or illegals are sucking a system that Obama has hurt dry. Patriots stay here and try to improve things not give up.

Big difference between hope/optimism within a context of realism and some blind Pollyanna wishful thinking.

Trump supporters are not doom and gloom. We face what is and look forward to improving what needs improvement.

[Toddsterpatriot]

And that being funded by the Fed's printing and bond buying.

Fed bond buying ended in October 2014.

[expat_panama]

Twist the point I made...

Ouch!  I got my point twisted the other day and that kind of thing can really hurt.  Hope it gets better.

...difference between hope/optimism within a context of realism...

Whoa, sure makes a fellow grumpy too I guess.   Seriously, healthy folks like me can prosper and we're generally happy and grateful.   Them that decide to be miserable end up being a burden to everyone they come in contact with.  It's a bad choice.  It's sick too, which is why I avoid them.

[expat_panama]

Here's what we're looking at (so far):  

Statistic	For	Actual	Briefing Forecast	Market Expects	Prior	Revised From
CPI	Jul	0.00%	-0.10%	0.00%	0.20%	--
Core CPI	Jul	0.10%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	--
Housing Starts	Jul	1211K	1175K	1167K	1186K	1189K
Building Permits	Jul	1152K	1160K	1153K	1153K	--
Industrial Production	Jul	0.70%	0.50%	0.30%	0.40%	0.60%
Capacity Utilization	Jul	75.90%	75.80%	75.70%	75.40%

Interesting, they're saying no inflation but Rush was saying yesterday that we had lots of inflation.

[TwelveOfTwenty]

OK, thanks for the update, but aren’t you forgetting the insults that a lot of Freepers hurl when pointing out a mistake? :)

[Toddsterpatriot]

Let me know which insult you prefer and I'll try to work it in if needed in the future.........