Trump Leading 67% to Hillary’s 19% in National Poll of 50,000 Voters

Constitution ^ | 8/12/2016 | Dave Jolly

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

Ever since the Democratic Convention, the only poll results being reported by the liberal mainstream media show that Hillary Clinton is slowly pulling ahead of Donald Trump. Of course the same liberal mainstream media had been conducting a biased editing and reporting campaign to show Trump in a bad way and glorify Hillary.

They edited his comments about the Muslim parents of whose son was killed in action while serving in the US military. Trump stated about the mom not speaking, the liberal media intentionally edited out when Trump stated that that’s what others have written. They made it to look like those were Trump’s own words.

Now all of the controversy surrounding the way liberals have twisted Trump’s comment about people who value the Second Amendment. Hillary and even the Kennedy family have twisted it in such a way as declare Trump is inciting violence in some form. However, none of the same liberal media, nor Clinton nor the Kennedy family mention the fact that Hillary once stated that Obama could be assassinated.

The sad part is that so many people today believe everything they hear and see from the liberal mainstream media. They take the reports as gospel.

Did you know that in most of the polls, where they are reporting a Clinton lead, are conducted in such a way as to bias the outcome? Often, they only poll 100 up to 1,000 people. Not only are their sample sizes statistically small, but they often poll areas that are known to be predominately Democratic, hence, it only makes sense that Hillary is ahead.

But you probably have not heard about one poll that was recently taken where they polled 1,000 people from every state.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

entropy weighing CA. and Idaho with each other may be correct HOWEVER the poll DOES SHOW the mood of the entire country, this IS going to be about turnout and Mr. Trump HAS the enthusiasm HELLARY has NONE!!! Trump wins In a LANDSLIDE we the people ARE PISSED and they are PISSED EVERYWHERE!!!! WE have NEVER had a candidate that drew the crowds Trump draws, HELL Obammie NEVER drew the crowds to rallies that Trump draws his inauguration yes but rallies NO WAY!!! The MSM is REALLY starting to get on my nerves I can’t say that EVER in my life have I felt such utter HATRED for anything such as I do for the MSM!!!

[IndispensableDestiny]

Where are the poll crosstabs?

[nightmarewhileawake]

... Hello ?? Indians don’t come here to “buy” a house. They come here to start their own business -— that my friends is the American Dream — being your own boss -— the chance to make it “big.” We need to tout that we are the business opportunity party.

[entropy12]

Agreed on all your points, about which side has the energy.

But please do not think this poll reflects reality.

[Chewbarkah]

I’d like to see their results broke out by state (plus percentages for each state who said they were likely to vote —the article says the poll was of registered voters).
“Undecided” is hard to interpret in this race. Could mean they don’t want to answer, refuse to vote for any candidate in the race, are unlikely to vote, or some combination.

Your point about California touches on something I have wondered about in the various “national” polls. Do the various national polls weight their respondents by state population (or state registered voters), and if so, do they also weight the results with assumptions about each state’s party affiliation breakdown? If they do not, the results are dubious. If they do, the results are dubious. State by state polling of likely voters with all 4 candidates in the game is what is needed now.

[entropy12]

If you really want to know what the polls are saying now, we need a poll of 5000 total respondents randomly selected from following states, with respondents from each state proportional to registered voters in each state and electoral votes in each state.

FL, PA, OH, GA, NC, VA, WI, AZ, CO, IA, NV, NH

2016 election will be decided in these 12 states. No more, no less.

[Timpanagos1]

“Where are the poll crosstabs?”

There are no crosstabs, there is no 50,000 respondent survey.

[EnigmaticAnomaly]

Welcome to FR, and I agree with your sentiment wholeheartedly...:-)

-EA

[cornfedcowboy]

Who posts garbage like this?

[atc23]

California won’t count. It won’t be that close. California will have .10 of their votes counted when the networks announce the winner.

[Milton Miteybad]

I am suspicious. 50,000 people polled? With certainty on the party affiliation?

With good reason. To get 50,000 genuine responses to a poll, you would have to call 500,000 people at a bare minimum. The ubiquity of Caller ID and the general unwillingness of people to answer a call from an unknown caller means that 500,000 number is in reality closer to 1,000,000 calls placed, in order to obtain responses from a mere 50,000 people. It would probably be the most expensive political poll undertaken, as it would take half a dozen outbound call centers weeks to make that number of calls.

In reality, this is probably some online poll with few of the usual controls, which is being presented as a real political poll conducted by a mainstream polling organization using the usual polling methods.

[navymom1]

Thanks for posting this. I get so tired of the Negative polling stories.

[dfwgator]

Polls don’t matter, we need to act as if we are trailing.

[entropy12]

lol I did not imply CA counts in any way shape or form for Trump. I think you may have misunderstood my point. My point is any poll which takes equal number of respondents from each state regardless of their population (=EV votes) and then comes up with a national poll average is simply laughable.

[Timpanagos1]

“If you really want to know what the polls are saying now, we need a poll of 5000 total respondents randomly selected from following states, with respondents from each state proportional to registered voters in each state and electoral votes in each state.”

If you want, you could hire a firm to conduct a 5,000 respondent survey, and if your sampling is done correctly, your Margin of Error would be 1.39%.

That survey would only cost you $125,000 to compare.

Or, you could hire a firm to conduct a survey of 850 respondents and using the same sampling model as your 5,000 respondent survey would have a Margin of Error of 3.39%.

If I were you, I would pay the $21,000 for that 850 respondent survey.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

entropy I in no way think this poll is reality HOWEVER in ALL polls conducted 78% of the people think the country IS going in the wrong direction this IS a FACT why in the HELL then would they vote HELLARY!!! All of these SO CALLED polls are nothing more than to drive the ENTHUSIASIM of Trumps side down it IS NOT going to work as a matter of fact it IS going to backfire !!!!!

[Gator113]

Keep the positive attitude, it’s contagious.

Go Trump, Go!

[Rebelbase]

Relevant:

[Timpanagos1]

Good to see I am not the only one who understands the logistics of polling and the reality of 10% Response Rates.

This 50,000 respondent survey is obviously a hoax.

The cost to field such a survey would be $1,250,000.