The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.8 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sampling error for the 389 likely voters is +/- 6.3 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing.
Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.
Pretty high margin of error IMHO
Not only a high MOE, but a very small sample. Trump and Toomey have also been mostly silent on the airwaves in the last week to 10 days. Every other ad here seems to be Hillary Clinton or Katie McGinty with their “I’ll fight for the middle class” shtick (yeah, like they’ve been doing as members of the ruling elite for the last decade or more).
Interesting that this is a likely voter\registerd voter poll where Hillary is leading. Likely voter polls generally favor Trump.
RATS still over sampled and I have no idea what the secret sauce weighting algorithm is.
can we assume the likely voters were part of the
661 Pennsylvania registered voters ?
breakdown = 321 Democrats, 257 Republicans, and 83 Independents.
Survey results were weighted (age, gender, region, education, and party
registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm
I can’t believe they had the gall to release a poll with such a ridiculously low sample.
Does this mean that when the phone rings, the Democrats are home watching soap operas while enjoying the fruits of their EBT cards, but the Republicans are out working?