So much is unknown.
I went to the Dornsife poll that’s prominent on FR these days and shows Trump winning.
I have to register to get their data. I don’t feel like it today, but I’ll probably do it in the near future.
I fear false data about Trump as much as about the dems. Either one hurts.
1. Raise expectations and then pull out the rug = demoralization.
2. Have you candidate said to be far behind = demoralization.
3. A supposedly close race in which the opponent begins to pull away = demoralization.
All seem designed to depress voter turnout, so your radar is taking you correctly to the turnout models.
Agree. It smacks of Zogby in, I think, 2000.
However, remember this. In almost every election, there is one “outlier” poll-—Zogby in 1996 (?), Rasmussen (I think in 2000), and Silver in 2008 which comes out of the blue and is 100% accurate. It wouldn’t surprise me if this USC poll, this cycle, is “the” poll.