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If Pennsylvania is truly a toss-up state this year, then in addition to Ohio and likely Michigan turning into toss-ups, you can add Wisconsin and 2004 Bush state Iowa as well. New Jersey would also likely be toss-up territory as well if Pennsylvania is.

Remember in 2004, Bush nearly took Wisconsin - he only lost by less than 4,000 votes and also dang near won Pennsylvania and New Jersey - lost 51-49 or something like that in Pennsylvania and nearly as close in New Jersey.

Trump will also have a good shot at winning most or all of the other 2004 Bush states that turned into Obama states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. These states should all be in play this year. Trump could also win New Hampshire and pick off an Electoral Vote in Maine as well

In the end, for Trump to get over 270 electoral votes, he simply needs to hold the states and the 206 electoral votes Romney won in 2012 (which he should do in my opinion rather easily), plus win Ohio (18 EV), Pennsylvania (20 EV) and Florida (29 EV). If he does that and wins no other former 2004 Bush state, then Trump will have 273 electoral votes and the Presidency, unless a bunch of NeverTrumper GOP types wind up as electoral college electors, LOL.

2012 Electoral Vote Map