Why Trump's Bump In The Polls Is More Significant Than Ever

theguardian.com ^ | 25 July 2016

[Helicondelta]

Three major polls have been conducted since Trump delivered his nomination acceptance speech at the Republican national convention last Thursday (and a fourth poll was conducted from 18 to 24 July, so it included some respondents who might have also heard the speech). All four polls found that Trump was leading over Clinton. Together, they were enough to shift the average in Trump’s favor.

Post-convention popularity bounces have occurred in previous election cycles, too – and they’re not always sustained. But this Trump bump could be different when you consider that Trump is no ordinary presidential nominee. The divisive candidate typically does better in online polling than in telephone polling. That gap suggests that some people who intend to vote for Trump are unwilling to say so when they’re being questioned by a human voice rather than a computer screen. It’s worth noting that in the lead-up to the British referendum about the European Union (another incredibly divisive political issue), online polls consistently got closer to predicting the eventual result than telephone ones did.

Three of the four latest polls that showed Trump ahead of Clinton were conducted via telephone. So, maybe the latest polling boost for Trump isn’t about increasing popularity but about emboldened supporters who now feel more comfortable expressing their voting intent to a stranger.

If that is the case, then maybe we haven’t reached peak Trump just yet.

[ptsal]

bttt

[lacrew]

Trump got to introduce himself to a lot of people who only knew the buzzwords said about him. There is a lot of fertile ground there. HRC, on the other hand, has very few people she can find to introduce herself to - everybody knows her and has an opinion of her.

So I think the first debate will be another opportunity for Trump to harvest more voters, who may not have watched his convention speech.

Really, any television opportunity, where the media is forced to cover it, gives Trump an opportunity to find new voters on a large scale.

The trend is good.

[dontreadthis]

me likey

[comebacknewt]

The only thing about the debates is they will all be at least two on one (HRC and the Moderator vs. DJT).

Having said that, I agree with you. His upside is much greater than hers.

[lacrew]

I watched Trump on Jimmy Fallon last summer. Fallon asked what he thought were gotcha questions, and literally was doubled over in laughter at his answers...

...and all Trump did was look directly into the camera and communicate with the audience.

I knew right then that he would win the primaries.

I assume he’ll do the same at the debate - he will essentially ignore HRC and the moderator, and just take the opportunity to communicate with the audience.

[BobL]

I think this morning that I noted that Trump’s supporters are ROCK-SOLID, and that the only way they’ll leave him is if he (with credibility) tells them to leave him.

Otherwise the Dems might as well learn to deal with the fact that Trump is at 43% or so (compared to Hillary at 39%), and that Trump’s ONLY DIRECTION is up...whereas Hillary’s supporters, many of which voted for Sanders, may very easily leave her.

[VerySadAmerican]

There were two against Romney. Trump is not Romney.

[VerySadAmerican]

There were 8 plus 3 moderators against Trump in the first debate. He won it hands down.

[dp0622]

MSM Presidential Survey

Do you intend to:

A. Vote for that miserable, rotten, insane, dangerously ultra nationalistic, white power touting, fascist, narcissistic cracka!!

B: Vote for the FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT EVER!!! AND THE BEST SEC OF STATE IN US HISTORY!!!

:)

[Vince Ferrer]

Hillary's strengths are now all in the past after the convention. Hillary is an insider that used her power in the party to finally get her nomination, but after the convention, the insider skills will not be as necessary. It will be her likeability, her voice, her ability to debate, and the media trying to drag her across the finish line.

When up against a good candidate willing to fight, she will only go down from here.

[lacrew]

You forgot xenophobic. It seems to be mentioned everywhere.

[dfwgator]

Trump can also get away with stuff that Hillary can’t because people know that Trump is still a newbie when it comes to politics, and that he will learn as he goes.

Hillary has no such upside, she is what she is.

[dp0622]

My apologies and thank you :)

Dems love to attach that phobic to a lot of things :)

[relictele]

In other good news, The Guardian is bleeding cash profusely.

[Georgia Girl 2]

From what I’ve seen so far the DNC convention isn’t going to do much for crooked Hillary.

[IWONDR]

“Hillary’s strengths are now all in the past after the convention. Hillary is an insider that used her power in the party to finally get her nomination, but after the convention, the insider skills will not be as necessary. It will be her likability, her voice, her ability to debate, and the media trying to drag her across the finish line.”

you forgot that the dead will rise up in huge numbers to cast their vote for the first US woemen president.

[Moonman62]

The more people see and hear Hillary, the less they like her. It’s going to be tough for her to stay out of the spotlight from this point on.

[Albion Wilde]

Make America Great Again

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* * *

Selected Trump articles on FR, from 7:30 PM to 11:59 PM EDT, 7/25/16:
I am at the DNC in Philadelphia and I cannot find a single Hillary supporter –Caroline Phinney
Wikileaks Reveal Clinton Ties to Rothschilds and Occult Cabal –YourNewsWire
'Lock her up': Sanders supporters adopt Trump's attack line on Clinton –Guardian
4 Brutal Poll Numbers that Greet Hillary at the DNC –WaPo
The Democrats built a wall around the podium –Twitter
RNC to withhold campaign funds from Kasich after he broke GOP Trump pledge –Prntly
Chuck Norris Announces Support for Trump, Takes Shot at Hillary –NewsMax
Why Trump's Bump in the Polls Is More Significant than Ever –Guardian
Photos: Soviet Flags Fly Proudly at DNC Convention March in Philly –GP

[Rome2000]

Trump will be smart about the moderators

These debates will not be business as usual.

The party is over