TRUMP now leads in 538's now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election today.

Twitter ^ | July 25, 2016 | Nate Silver

[Lisbon1940]

These are not leads. This is the actual result if the election was today.

[drop 50 and fire for effect]

I’m curious to see the numbers on this. Comparing the tweet to the old data on the website, the big change is the shift of Pennsylvania from soft Clinton to soft Trump.

I read recently that Connecticut may start tilting to Trump, but can’t recall where I saw that. I am also wondering if Maine, which has been a reliable Democrat state for the Presidential election, may be trending towards Trump. Silver’s data indicates that both states are much less enthusiastic about Clinton than their neighbors.

Does anyone have insight into where those two states are trending?

[Stand Watch Listen]

Same circumstances that happened previously in Washington, Oregon, New Mexico..DEMS from California immigrate because of difficult conditions in CA...but they continue to vote Democrat and its policies/agendas.

Florida, the Caolinas are also being 'settled' by DEMS ESCAPING from the Northeast. Alas still voting Den policies/agendas. Colarado has huge immigrants escapees from California and also its share of vast illegal immigrants. And once again voting DEMS policies/agendas/entitlements.

[mac_truck]

I blame marijuana for Colorado’s goofiness...that and the complete disgrace that the Republican party there has become.

[Dr. Sivana]

These are not leads. This is the actual result if the election was today.

I know, but the margin (according to 538's analysis) is shown by the shade of red or blue in the state. Trump leading in OH and PA at this point, even by a small margin is yuuge.

[Lisbon1940]

>> I know, but the margin (according to 538’s analysis) is shown by the shade of red or blue in the state.

The shading represents the win probability, not the margin of victory.

[Dr. Sivana]

The shading represents the win probability, not the margin of victory.

Probabilities based on polling, among other things. They may not be exactly the same thing, but the probability is measuring the likeliness of a certain outcome of an election (if held today). It is not incorrectto say someone is "leading" in an area if he is more likely to win it than not. And although some states are more volatile than others, as a rule of thumb, the solid states have wider margins than the swing states.

This is quibbling. Trump is more than competitive in states that have not gone Republican, and his path to victory is quite clear, even to Mr. 5%er Silver.

[Lisbon1940]

>> Trump is more than competitive in states that have not gone Republican, and his path to victory is quite clear, even to Mr.Silver.

Yes, that’s true. i was just pointing out some technical aspects of the polling data.