Hmmmm Considering they usually oversample Democrats by 15% Trump must be KILLING her.
He is, and he hasn’t spent much of anything yet or really even launched his campaign..... Hillary has her post convention bounce, if she gets one, and that’s it, her trajectory will continue downward until November.
Between Trump attracting disenfranchised voters, who get filtered out by a lot of polling when they are trying to find “likely voters”... if you say You didn’t vote in the last election, then you are going to be flagged as less than likely to vote this time... and the Bradley effect around Trump... I generally put him about 3-5 points higher than what polls are showing.
As Trump begins to pull away, and it becomes less socially embarrassing to admit you will be voting for Trump, the bradley effect in the polling will become less and he’ll gain a few more percentage without really doing anything, he’s there now, but polling is missing it.