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Analysis: Turkey's Erdogan Shattered Even If His Regime Survives
Breitbart.com ^ | July 16 , 2016 | Aaron Klein

Posted on 07/16/2016 4:09:09 AM PDT by Biggirl

Turkey is in chaos and the future does not bode well for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his allies regardless of whether Erdogan can wrest control from an army group that announced on Friday it has taken over the country.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: arabspring; coup; erdogan; failedcoup; regime; turkey; turkeycoup
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1 posted on 07/16/2016 4:09:10 AM PDT by Biggirl
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To: Biggirl

Not completely calm yet. This morning:

11:44AM
Frigate ‘seized’ by anti-government forces

A Turkish group opposed to the government has taken over a frigate at Turkey’s Golcuk naval base and the head of the Turkish fleet is being held hostage, a senior Greek military source told Reuters.


2 posted on 07/16/2016 4:17:34 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: Biggirl

I think Klein is way off base with this analysis. Erdogan will use the failed coup to purge the military and any political opposition. Many will be killed and disappeared and Erdogan will rush to make Turkey a theocratic Islamist state and eliminate remaining Western influences.


3 posted on 07/16/2016 4:22:57 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: Truth29

If you are right, Turkey must be kicked out of NATO and never ever be allowed to join the EU or what is left of the EU.


4 posted on 07/16/2016 4:29:03 AM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: Truth29

Well perhaps, but Turkey is so ‘sick’ (exceedingly weak economy, already demoralized military, secular vs. religious rule) that, if Estrogen attempts his one man rule and pushes fundamental Islam as his country-side supporters wish, then the whole state will collapse - almost as if this is planned so ISIS can pick up the pieces with a new state to reside within.

I think the political opposition forces made a huge mistake not supporting the coup and will rue the day.


5 posted on 07/16/2016 4:31:33 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: Biggirl

The basic mistake: not killing Erdogan first, so the snake would have been headless.


6 posted on 07/16/2016 4:31:58 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Biggirl
Here's a link to the John Batchelor Show with guest Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs. Mr. Copley explains things the best IMO -- including years ago what I remember that the EU threatened Turkey with rejections if the military did not stop "interfering" -- I believe the military's duty has always been to "interfere" to save the Republic and the Constitution from the likes of Islamists like Erdogan.

Also described is how the military would dismantle Erdogan's support of radical Islamists around the Globe. Much more. This could even go a long way to settling the Syrian conflicts.

IMO this describes exactly why Obama supports Erdogan over the military trying to do its duty to restore secular government.

audio

7 posted on 07/16/2016 4:33:58 AM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: txrefugee
The basic mistake: not killing Erdogan first, so the snake would have been headless.

IIUC, he was not even in the country at the time the attempt was staged.

8 posted on 07/16/2016 4:35:12 AM PDT by JimRed (Is it 1776 yet? TERM LIMITS, now and forever! Build the Wall, NOW!)
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To: Truth29

I agree; Erdogan seemed to have plenty of popular support yesterday (despite his support for ISIS, suppressing journalists, etc.).

Turkey is lost as China was in 1949; our “president” was encouraging people to support Erdogan while ISIS is still killing Americans and our allies.

Who would enlist today after that? I guess the same people who thought it was normal for a wartime president’s daughter to wear a shirt sporting a peace symbol...


9 posted on 07/16/2016 4:40:36 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Maine Mariner

“If you are right, Turkey must be kicked out of NATO and never ever be allowed to join the EU or what is left of the EU.

Concur, but Odunga or Canckles wont be up for it.


10 posted on 07/16/2016 4:43:20 AM PDT by DAC21
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To: Biggirl

No, far from shattered, Erdogan will be able to slaughter the opposition and extend his ruthless control. 14 years in power and now he has the pretext to assert greater control.


11 posted on 07/16/2016 4:47:51 AM PDT by Enchante (Hillary's new campaign slogan: "Guilty as hell, free as a bird!! Laws are for peasants!")
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To: Truth29

Yup, this only strengthens Erdogan now. A failed coup is far worse than no coup attempted. Erdogan will continue to develop his wannabe caliphate.


12 posted on 07/16/2016 4:51:01 AM PDT by Enchante (Hillary's new campaign slogan: "Guilty as hell, free as a bird!! Laws are for peasants!")
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To: Truth29
Erdogan will use the failed coup to purge the military and any political opposition. Many will be killed and disappeared and Erdogan will rush to make Turkey a theocratic Islamist state and eliminate remaining Western influences

It's worse than that.

Everything you say will happen. Erdogan will demand, and get, admission to the EU and the Schengen zone.

The Turks are an energetic and clever people. They are not, repeat NOT, the Arab or Pashtun Muslims we are used to dealing with.

Because of Turkey's population size, they will IMMEDIATELY exercise more influence in Brussels than any other EU state. Add to that that Erdogan has national and imperial goals which no other EU state has - in fact, which all other EU states specifically deny themselves.

"Islamophobia" will become a serious EU-wide crime. Resettlement of the shock army of Arabs, Pashtuns, and Maghrebians will become a priority (remember, when these three unruly people were governed from Constantinople, they were easily controlled. Johnny Turk is not some Church of England schoolmaster).

All in all, this is a geostrategic disaster of unprecedented dimension.

13 posted on 07/16/2016 4:55:01 AM PDT by Jim Noble (The polls can have a strong influence on the weak-minded)
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To: Enchante

He will have to watch his back forever. And if I know anything about that part of the world he will have to watch it even when he is dead.


14 posted on 07/16/2016 4:56:50 AM PDT by magua
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To: Biggirl

I think this might be a hopeful analysis and not an accurate one, at least for a few years.

Dictators generally grip more tightly on power after such attempts.

This guy could become like Saddam Hussein—surrounded by a loyal cadre and protected for many years by a slaughtering of enemies—real and merely perceived.

All while Valerie’s man child applauds.


15 posted on 07/16/2016 4:57:03 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Truth29

Yes. There is no way that the military leaders would have done this had they not thought they would succeed. The rug was pulled from under them by double-agent Islamist loyalists in the military command.


16 posted on 07/16/2016 4:57:40 AM PDT by oblomov (We have passed the point where "law," properly speaking, has any further application. - C. Thomas)
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To: Biggirl

12:56PM
Thousands of judges purged

The Turkish government has embarked on a purge of the judiciary following the botched coup, state TV reports, in the first sign of how last night could increase Erdogan’s authoritarian rule.

NTV said 2,745 judges had been removed from duty, following a decision of the High Council of Judges.

Five members of the High Judiciary Court Board were also removed


17 posted on 07/16/2016 4:58:38 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: Biggirl

Turkey on its way to becoming another Caliphate. Obama will assist. Dangerous times lie ahead.


18 posted on 07/16/2016 5:03:48 AM PDT by TTFlyer
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To: txrefugee

Evidently, they attempted to do so.


19 posted on 07/16/2016 5:03:59 AM PDT by oblomov (We have passed the point where "law," properly speaking, has any further application. - C. Thomas)
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To: Truth29

He’s been doing that since he came to power. He’s also got a lock on the courts and public education.

This was a small element of the lower military - and the people didn’t raise up and back it. The people who did come out backed Erdogan.

This is another example where the majority of Muslims will sit it out and let a few hard liners run the show.

Just like Mosques here in America. A few hard liners run the show and the majority sit back and let things roll - because either they are afraid or support (by silence) with what’s going on. When a member goes SJS they go “Wow, I didn’t know!”


20 posted on 07/16/2016 5:06:07 AM PDT by PeteB570 ( Islam is the sea in which the Terrorist Shark swims. The deeper the sea the larger the shark.)
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