Not exactly, a treaty established the Permanent Court of Arbitration. If you signed the treaty, you agreed to be bound by its decisions. China did, so they normally would accept their judgement.
The Chicoms agreed to arbitration, if they renege then things get dangerous.
Since WWII we have had very few overt interstate wars. The Falklands, the Arab-Israeli Wars, and the Indo-Pakistani Wars come to mind, all of which were limited in scope or geography.
Most other major wars have either a thin veneer of "civil war" (Korea, Vietnam, multiple African Wars) and/or a thin veneer of international approval (Korea, Persian Gulf, Iraq, Afghanistan 2000s), or are legitimate internal conflicts.
If China effectively tells the court, and the world at large, to go pound sand they set themselves on a potential collision course against Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan. As well as two longstanding major U.S. interests: freedom of navigation (1/3 of global shipping) and the independence of the Philippines. (Obama thought he could appease the Chinese, but they see him as weak, so they keep ramping up the pressure.)
What keeps bothering me is why? and why now? China is a land animal, they are investing in both a blue water navy and an expensive and aggressive campaign to seize the South China Sea. This risks a general war in eastern Asia.
My fear is that the Chicoms think the alternative is worse. There are intense social, economic and political pressures at play in China. But as a mostly closed society, we cant see how they are interacting. My fear is that the Chicoms are turning to external expansion to vent internal pressures. China has spent most of the last three hundred years in a semi-constant state of civil war (the last being the Cultural Revolution, which was a weird, but IMHO a real civil war.) I admit this is speculation, but Obama's weakness has provided this opportunity to China.
I don’t see China backing down. They will renounce the treaty and continue on their own way. The other countries will squawk but only the USA could stop them, and are we going to go to war over some stupid reefs?? I don’t think so.....
The US isn’t honoring our treaties and agreements these days, not surprising China and a hand full of other countries are doing the same.
The next 6 months are a do or die time for these countries, and they know it will be 20 to 50 years before they get the same kind of opportunity again, if ever.
China may be a land beast, but they have been studying very hard the last several decades on how to project power further off their shores.
Red China wants to reestablish China as The Middle Kingdom of the world. To do so it has been positioning itself to regionally challenge America's armed forces in 2025 and win. That involves securing near sea lanes and resources.
There is much more involved. But basically Red China is viewing the near ocean as "wet land", treating it as their territory in the same fashion as land. They are just doing so by using naval forces.
Though the philosophical underpinning of Red China's actions is military and not naval, it is positioning itself to prevent the US Navy's tactical forces and our nation's strategic forces from being able to impose our will on Red China. Again, 2025 is the year Red China is preparing for this to be in place.
Very much enjoyed your post's thoughtful and informative comments.