Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity? [FED CAN'T HELP THE ECONOMY]

Cato Journal ^ | Spring/Summer 2016). | Jerry L. Jordan

[expat_panama]

mho is that the writer may have erred in saying that the Fed's goal was creating an inflation that never came. The hard facts are that in late 2008 we had deflation, then the Fed acted and then deflation stopped and we've had low inflation ever since.

What that says to me is that whether we thank the Fed is up for debate but we did get what we wanted...

[cp124]

Fed is for Wall Street. The government and elites could care less about Main Street.

[ctdonath2]

A headline with a binary “yes/no” question is always answered “no”.

Of course monetary policy can affect the economy, but assuming the goal is general good the practical answer is no.

The best that can & should be done is maintain a stable money supply, keeping pace with population & GDP growth such that the purchasing power of a currency unit does not change. Anything else iss ultimately disruptive & damaging.

[expat_panama]

 

Good morning along w/ a new month, a new quarter, plus the downhill half of 2016!

Yesterday stock indexes powered up big time in rising trade making it our IBD 'follow-thru' day and an uptrend resumes.  Still, they recommend a caution that futures traders echo (some up some down). Meanwhile precious metals soar to new highs w/ gold - silver up to $1,335.25 - $19.28!

Today's big reports are ISM Index, Construction Spending, with Auto and Truck Sales.

My news-link picks:

The 'College Ed Haves' Have Taken All The New Jobs - Lisa Du, Bloomberg
4 Questions to Ask Before Selling Your Stocks - Eric Nelson, Seeking Alpha
Brexit Now Has Business Voting With Its Feet - Ben Marlow, The Telegraph
Hillary Wants Sequel To Failed Stimulus - Stephen Moore, Weekly Standard
There's No End to Lois Lerner's Lawlessness - Editorial, Investor's Business
Taxes on Sugary Drinks Slim Wallets, Not Waists - Michelle Minton, USAT
Populism Is Clouding Europe's Future - Byron Wien, The Blackstone Group
The Non-Existent 'Social Costs' Of a Gold Standard - Nathan Lewis, Forbes
The Risk/Reward Equation Has Changed - Macro Man

[palmer]

We had a blowout commodity bubble in 2008.

If that was inflation then the deflation (bubble popping) was normal and as healthy as we can get considering the unhealthy bubble. That was followed by deleveraging which sometimes is called deflation but is not.

[proxy_user]

This is a pretty tough article for the average Freeper. Everyone should read it, but I’m not sure everyone has the background to follow the arguments.

[Wpin]

The Fed has done a fantastic job of keeping this economy reasonably afloat. It is ridiculous to present that it cannot affect (do good) for the economy...historical data is overwhelmingly in support of the Fed’s good actions helping strengthen the economy.

[Pelham]

I agree with what you have said here.

The monetary easing, the QE, was to prevent a deflationary collapse of the money supply similar to what triggered the Great Depression.

This was seen as a very real possibility as a trillion dollars in mortgage based ‘assets’ on the books of banks suddenly was exposed as liable to vanish.

[Pelham]

In addition I’m not sure that the author really knows his subject. Currency is a microscopic portion of the money supply. And I’d like to see he his evidence that banks are no longer reserve-constrained. I’m not buying that claim.

[MosesKnows]

Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity?

Yes; but isn't the real question whether it effects economic activity in a positive or negative way.

To put it another way; can the government centrally plan and control the (fill-in-the-blank, economy, health care delivery, education, society, or rights) better than the market for fill-in-the-blank, economy, health care delivery, education, society, or rights?

I say no, what say you?

[expat_panama]

The best that can & should be done is...   ...that the purchasing power of a currency unit does not change.

That's impossible.  Life is change and as long as human beings buy and sell there will be price changes (AKA changes in purchasing power).  On the Planet Earth all we can do is set a goal (say, inflation below 2%) and do what it takes.  What we're seeing is that the Fed's doing that job fairly well.

[expat_panama]

economic activity...   ...can the government centrally plan and control the (fill-in-the-blank...   ...what say you?

If we "fill-in" the blank w/ "regulate the value of the dollar" then the answer's yes.  With that other stuff it isn't "no", it's "hell no!".

[expat_panama]

...historical data is overwhelmingly in support of the Fed’s good actions helping strengthen the economy...

A lot of folks at the Fed have said that the best (and only) way they can help the economy is w/ stable prices.  That may not be the popular line and it may not even be a consensus there but it's what I personally can sign on to.

[expat_panama]

...QE, was to prevent a deflationary collapse...

Huh, so I'm not the only freeper that says that. 

 

tx!  I don't feel so lonely now...

[ctdonath2]

Sorry, I assumed “within reason” would be understood.

Kinda hard to achieve encyclopedic thoroughness when posting on a cell phone.

[central_va]

The 16th amendment needs to be repealed, the federal reserve dissolved, the income tax eliminated and a 25% across the board tariff put in place.

[babble-on]

Jerry Jordan was a good FOMC member. Miss his sane and commonsense approach to monetary policy.

[babble-on]

Yes, QE was necessary to prevent a depression, but not sufficient to create a sustained recovery.

The big problem is their tolerance of the asset bubbles, and not really their reactions to the bubbles’ collapses.

[MosesKnows]

"regulate the value of the dollar"

Point well taken.

Perhaps I should have phrased it differently.

To put it another way; can the government CONSTITUTIONALLY centrally plan and control the (fill-in-the-blank, economy, health care delivery, education, society, or rights) better than the market for fill-in-the-blank, economy, health care delivery, education, society, or rights?

[expat_panama]

agreed. very much so.