And 42% polled described themselves as Democrats. 39% Republicans (3% right there more Democrats) and 15% Independents and 4 unsure/not willing to reply.
When a poll polls more Republicans and Hillary is in the lead of that, that is when it would be panic time for Trump, etc.
So, 3 points more Democrats polled subtracted from the ‘6 point lead’ for Hillary and that would put the result right in the ‘margin of error’ dead heat.
Hillary should be in the lead when more Democrats are polled. If she wasn’t, they would be in panic mode themselves.
Actually, +3 D is not bad, and pretty favorable to Trump. But the real numbers are about 36-30-28 or so.
So this poll 1) greatly under polls Is, where Trump leads big, 2) is registered not likely, so that’s about a +2 for the D, and has a decent 3 point MOE. Probably a Cankles lead of 2 points.
2012 Election exit polls showed 38% of voters were Democrats, 32% were Republicans and 29% were Independents. Romney got 7% of the Democrat vote and Obama got 6% of the Republican vote. Independents split 55-45 for Romney.
The latest Gallup Poll on party affiliation showed 46% Democrats or leaning Democrat and 40% Republicans or leaning Republican.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190421/democrats-increasing-edge-party-affiliation.aspx