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Point 5. Lincoln pulled the powerful ship, the Powhatan, away from the Sumter expedition at the last moment, lowering the chances that the expedition would be able to force its way into Sumter. My take is that he would be happy if all the expedition did was to get the Confederates to “fire on the flag” that he could use to stir up patriotic feelings in the North. To a large extent that worked.

I believe I have found some clarification on this point. It is worse than you describe. The order sent to all the ships of the expedition, (USS Thomas Freeborn, Uncle Ben, USS Yankee, USS Baltic, USS Pocahontas, USS Pawnee, USRC Harriet Lane, and the USS Powhatan) were:

From Gideon Welles, United States Secretary of the Navy. April 5, 1861.

“The United States [Navy] steamers Powhatan, Pawnee, Pocahontas, and Harriet Lane will compose a naval force under your command, to be sent to the vicinity of Charleston Harbor, for the purpose of. . . carrying out the objects of an expedition of which the War Department has charge (Scott is supplying the men and material and transports, Fox is to lead them.).
The primary object. . . is to provision Fort Sumter. . . Should the authorities at Charleston refuse to permit, or attempt to prevent the vessels from entering. . .you will protect the transports or boats, open the way for their ingress, and [remove] all obstructions to entry. . . The expedition has been intrusted to Captain G. V. Fox, with whom you will put yourself in communication. . .
You will leave New York with the Powhatan in time to be off Charleston bar, ten miles distant from and due east of the lighthouse. . . there to await the arrival of the transports (with Fox on board). . . The Pawnee, Pocahontas, and Harriet Lane will be ordered to join you. . . “

This clearly says to use force to open the way for their ingress, and [remove] all obstructions to entry

The Powhatan was the lead ship. It was the command ship. All the other ships were led to believe that it would be joining them off Charleston, and that they were to wait until it got there.

Had the Powhatan arrived as expected, the mission would have proceeded to force a landing at the Fort through the teeth of the Confederate guns. That would likely have killed most everyone on those ships.

These were the orders that were public knowledge among these sailors, outfitters, dock hands, and so forth, and it is unquestionable that the South was told of what those orders consisted.

The Powhatan was last to leave, and just before it left, David Porter shows up with a secret order from Lincoln authorizing him to take command of the Vessel and sail it to Pensacola. None of the other ships have knowledge of this, and their orders compel them to sit off the coast of Charleston waiting for the Powhatan, which is never going to come.

This warship flotilla is effectively paralyzed into inaction but it's leaked orders indicate it will attack when the Powhatan joins it. Again, the Powhatan was never going to join it. The Attack orders were intended to provoke the Confederates but were never truly intended to be carried out.

Lincoln cleverly used the Powhatan as the hidden key to stopping the attack, but neither the Confederates nor the other Union ships knew of this.

Lincoln could pretend to be "sending bread to Anderson" even though he his Secretary of the Navy had clearly issued belligerent orders that were conditional on the arrival of the Powhatan.

But those ships never were going to unload supplies for Anderson because the Powhatan never was going to show up to meet them. Lincoln clearly had no intentions that those ships should ever land any supplies at all. The only reason they were there was to scare the Confederates into believing they were about to be attacked.

Good find and good analysis of Lincoln's probable thinking. Makes sense to me. The other Union ships might have tried to force their way in but the seas were to rough over the Charleston bar making it likely that the ships would run aground like the Star of The West had scraped bottom several times making its exit from the harbor over the Charleston bar in January.

Plus the tugs that had been obtained to deliver the supplies to the fort had not shown up. The tugs had been delayed or prevented from proceeding by the same storm and rough seas that had delayed some of the larger ships of Lincoln's armada.

Although there were no tugs, the Pawnee had a boat that could carry in supplies. However, the heavy and rough seas were a problem for the Union ships that might provide cover for the Pawnee supply boat. The Baltic itself had already run aground in heavy swells on a shoal off the harbor and took time to get free.

From Maury Klein's excellent book, Days of Defiance"

Everyone [on the Union ships] had wanted to assist Sumter regardless of the batteries, but without pilots, buoys, or marks they dared not make the attempt.