Donald Trump’s path to victory

>I think it’s a bit early for all the hand wringing. AFTER he becomes the official Nominee; THEN you will see his campaign dismantle Hillary and leave her on the scrap pile. IMHO.

Trump’s already launched it but the media is in full on force field mode for Hillary. Trump’s got to find a way to break past the media censors.

NY, PA, NJ shot at CT. FL for sure.
Add NC, MI, or OH and we have a new electoral map my friends.
Newt’s “Trump Patriots” will win the day.

“Why would he be looking beyond 2016? If Hill wins, there is NOTHING LEFT. November, 2016 is it. Period.”

Trump himself has said in one of the debates in April that he would go back to his construction day job if he’d to lose. I think he is thinking strategically how to maximize his investments (coming out his own pockets).

Don't worry about the polls. They're clueless as well as liars. The details about poll samples matter, plus their models are broken. Most are dishonest and almost the publicly announced ones spin the results to suit their intended markets.

The models are broken for a whole bunch of reasons. Those include but are not limited to:

almost universally reported horrifying enemy attacks at home in war (San Bernardino and recently Orlando - there will be more before the election),

the first economic class-based voter revolution,

class-based reporting (the media are now all from a SINGLE narrow & incestuous socio-economic class with virtually no ties to public opinion outside their small in-group),

break-up of one party's lock on specific ethnic-based voter groups (the Democrats have LOST working-class blacks & Hispanics - IMO Trump will get 10-15 of the black vote, and 25-35% of Hispanics),

over-reliance on telephone polls (as opposed to other means of communicating with potential voters),

over-reliance on now-outmoded land-lines for telephone polls (which is different from, but related to, the former),

Etc.

Look at the presaging events in past elections for indications as to where the 2016 Presidential election is headed. Here are IMO the decisive indicators:

It will be a GOP landslide for the Presidency anyway. This is a GOP sweep year for the presidency due to structural factors. I felt last year that any plausible GOP nominee would beat ANY Democratic nominee, with the GOP getting 55%+ of the popular vote and 40+ states votes in November.

The structural factors have been the GOP sweep of Congressional, state and local elections in the 2010, 2012 and 2014 elections, to the point where it would be difficult for the GOP to win any more such offices, plus that the economy and jobs have plain sucked the whole time. The latter is largely due to a statistically significant collapse in small business formation, and that in turn is due to regulatory overload, chiefly federal. The camel’s back has finally broken.

Historically either of these indicators have always resulted in an overwhelming turnover of the Presidency. Here we are dealing with both together.

Finally the primary voters have so far this year DECISIVELY rejected the status quo. 72.6% of the GOP primary voters chose either Trump, Cruz or Ben Carson. 42.9% of the Democratic primary voters chose Bernie Sanders. Together, as an average of both parties combined, those are 55% of all primary voters who chose candidates that unmistakably reject the status quo and present party/national elites

The voters are seriously p***** off this year. They’re not going to vote for a Democratic candidate who represents more of the way things are. They’ll vote for whoever most represents CHANGE. That is Donald Trump.

For the record, I am not a Trump supporter. I’ll vote for him in November because I’m a Republican. But I did predict last December that he would win. That was obvious after San Bernardino. Now we’ve seen Orlando. There will be more.